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swmnfarmer2878522
Frequent Contributor

Re: The dollar

Unfortunately a Midwest drought has a pattern that works like clock work.  Drought starts in the south east then migrates through Ohio, then illinois, then through the western belt.  It never migrates from the southwest.  The only exception was a drought that started in Wisconsin once.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The dollar

Dollar staying pretty firm after the ECB didn't really produce a lot on the stimulus front.

Long rates back on the rise.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The dollar

As far as general MW drought predictions go, I'm of the opinion that there's a unique combination of factors that should make you even more cautious regarding guesses about what were already weak correlations.

We're well into a major sunspot minimum that may last for several more decades if history is any guide. Temperatures should be on the cooler side in such a period. At the same time we have record global mean temperatures, owing to factors that I won't attempt to argue here. These factors haven't been aligned in this way at any time we have any historical connection to.

So for now I'll just stick with the fact that there's about 7% more water vapor in the atmosphere than in those past periods that we look to as guidance.

BTW, the 11.6 year sunspot cycle is on the upswing into what should be a peak around '23 or '24. This one looks even punkier than the last one, which was very weak. But it would point toward '22-'24 being riskier.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The dollar

New Sunspot Cycle could be one of the strongest on record | NCAR & UCAR News

As always, there is dissent on the nearer term outlook.

I have no idea other than to observe that at this moment sunspot activity is rising- as you'd expect- from near nil at the cycle low. But nothing to suggest a very strong cycle at this time.

Worth monitoring- should it really shoot up in the next eyar or so it will need to be taken into account. 

You should have a heads up as compared to just guessing.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The dollar

DX knocking on the door of 92.

Looks like it could go to 93 if the 10 yr hits around 1.9%. There are other factors involved.

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