Exporter's stocks are down 28%, a critical number when the reserves of China and India are subtracted as they either will not export or export very little. In fact China has already reached the expected yearly import amount for wheat - and probably will import more.
With corn tight and soy depending solely on S America now the possibility of buyer insecurity, and the surges that arise from competition, and all realizing that the time to get reasonable prices might be over, volatility is sure to follow. In the form of price spikes.
Once again you will witness the market as a lagging indicator. Yes, I repeat this often. We'll surely see if I'm wrong. If I'm right you need to take this into account in the future. I'm speaking to producers of course. Traders have far different conditions to pay attention to and they have little to do with physical wheat.
