They are Argentina and China. These are trends that I won't attempt to quantify, but trends none the less.
The consistent story in Argentina is hot temps during pollination of corn and the idea that rains so far are not sustaining unless the rain trend continues and temps fall. There are already plenty of predictions that the corn crop potential has been damaged and limited.
I'm guessing that the China drought in wheat country is now being looked at seriously. It is a dry area anyway and depends on irrigation. But percip down 84% in their most productive province is an issue. Yes, China has had repeated issues of dryness for years and gone ahead and produced normal crops and preserved inventories. Maybe this time it won't turn out the same. The persistent rumors that China has drawn down corn stocks is being noted, though I think they would stay out of the corn market until they are sure they can't maintain adequate inventories - at which time they hope that world production is up and they will cause less market distortion than if they were to start buying large amounts now. The domestic economic policies will have a marginal effect on soybean purchases. They could slow, but not fall year on year IMO.
I believe we are on track for increased volatility going into N American planting.
