The grain I have to be bullish on

[sdholloway56]

Oats, I think. Opinions appreciated.

They’ll probably have a hard time rallying if corn is under pressure for a while, but they seem to have the best fundamental case.

Spring wheat, too.

[sdholloway56]

Could probably go short corn/long oats.

Maybe 1:2 if feeling spunky.

[sdholloway56]

What would you estimate as the fill period for oats in the Canadian prairies?

[sdholloway56]

Oats (Globex) Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Sept. 2021 : CBOT (tradingcharts.com)

While the EW triangle ABCDE correction scenario in corn is looking dubious, very much alive in oats.

[sdholloway56 · Accepted solution]

WASDE looks like it would require a drop of 3-4 kmt's in North American production (probably about 15% lower yield, given lower acreage) to really make the market tight.

That's sounds far from impossible at this moment.

I think oats are a firly inelastic market- the end users that need them really do and don't have a lot of substitutes. When they're in surplus, just a default feed grain with quality premiums for the food market.

[k-289]

Oat  Hay, being  the  dream  feed  of  feeder  cattle  &  wintering  stock  cows , although  the lick  tub,  feed  salesman  will  have  a  different  opinion  -  -  -

[sdholloway56]

Canola, too.

Hadn't paid sufficient attention to the reason SBO is holding beans up.