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Honored Advisor

The morning news

Biggest issue I see this morning ..........

 

1-- the latest Export sales report out this morning sort of blew the doors off expectations for corn and beans.... "the demand in the Market" this week...   corn at 102 mb for the week and beans at 80+ mb.

Well above anybodys guess.

 

2.. maybe a little clearer picture of who is trying to counter balance the exports to hold the prices from reacting to the fire sale exports

.  These guys are going to be dissapointed..... image002.png

 

image001.png

 

 

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5 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: The morning news

So why are we not limit up? Lovely harvest weather boy you guys sure ended up with your foot in your mouth there. Now exports blowing the assumed projections out of the water and markets are DoWn?!? Wow this market is the biggest sham yet no explinations what a joke.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: The morning news

you got a rally the past 3-4 days when exporters, who had been making those sales that were reported today, were in the futures market covering those positions......to complete the transaction they will need to buy the cash or take the risk of staying short the basis on those sales....

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Honored Advisor

Re: The morning news

good explanation ........... there is a lag time to the process

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Honored Advisor

Re: The morning news

The market may not respond to this crop for some time..... although we will.....

 

It is still the usual issue of a 13 bln bu crop maybe at best ,,,, but it comes all at once up front...

And a 14 bln bu demand that in spread throughout the year.... It will take a lot more sales to drive the market at harvest.....

I'd be content with some stability and less doom and gloom,---- and a return to basis that is based on freight differences again...

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Honored Advisor

Re: The morning news

I just liked the graphics because they reminded me that usda is not the only folks believing my crop is better than it is...

I sit on usda too much, I just don't like bureaucratic arrogance.  The whole country thinks history only goes back to Reagan.  The budgeting purpose behind NASS projections made sense for decades.  Now it is just a "powerball" exercise.....  because usda defends their accuracy..... There was a time when usda was quick to remind that they were just projections for budgeting purposes and not a prediction of actual crop development.

Of course I tend to blame the bear side for manipulating the meaning of the numbers.... The bear side has limited food in the winter...

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