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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

The pump is primed

Will take the trade till fall to see it. Anticipate a small weather scare rally yet this spring into early summer.

Big moves start into harvest and next year.

Sell only what you need and keep the upside open.



30 Replies
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

I just want to know when Hillary is going to take her profits on her cattle trade.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

On the open this morning jec22. 

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

Time, u under water over there
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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

Welcome back Mizzou...I was kind of thinking you might have been washed away this week. 

 

The trade's complacency on corn supply is pretty difficult to grasp, but like you say, they have till next year to figure it out.

 

One more rain away from PP being the best return for lots of the eastern belt. And, as an added bonus, 32 degrees for a low on what is already emerged that is not under water...why practically perfect conditions, record yields assured.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

Super saturated Mizzou, and another 2" today with no where to go...yep kind of soggy. Lots of the early corn just emerging, perfect time to hammer it and then freeze it tonight and tomorrow night.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

Thanks time. i know the feeling all to well, 2015 will forever be etched in my mind. It sucks and the worst part is waiting.

I have been forunate enough to miss the massive rains. Plenty soupy but not going to complain because there are a lot of people in a tough boat right now. Pun intended.

Still have corn to plant and might have some replant yet. Don't even have beans on the floor yet. Just have to see if it ever dries up. This cold is the icing on the cake. It's killing us, I agree.

Went from a nice spring to crap pretty quick. I anticipate the trade not caring again until harvest and then we could see some major breakouts into next spring. There is a small chance that the June report might spark something but it will be a tame move sticking close to moderate ranges.

Yes the complacency of the trade is annoying but what can you do. That said complacency leads to major moves when the ingredients come together. Just have to be prepared I guess.

Not much motivation this year from a lot of guys to try and mud/sling/fight to get this crop in, inputs and extras have been cut clear out which will only pull potential down more.

Stay safe
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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

Great points...just human nature to reduce potential...and then NASS still uses 170 as a trend yield. Not very good statistics for a chaotic system...but that has never confused them in the past.  :-0

 

Driving to eastern ohio tomorrow for a graduation, decided to make it a weekend since nothing to do here. I'll give a glowing crop report when I return. He ECIN, how is it down your way?

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northnd
Senior Contributor

Re: The pump is primed

Doesn't matter if NASS or USDA or whoever reports wrong numbers. No ramifications. No mention politically. They will just fudge the numbers later on. When most people have forgot about initial "screwup". In fact the trade loves it. Creates volatility and that means money.
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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: The pump is primed

It's pretty wet down here in N.E.Shelby county Time - had 3.5 last week - then at 7 this morning had 9 tenths in the gauge . Had a few good pounders since then . Two sides of the fence here - some are either all done - corn and beans - OR some have not started yet . Corn that's is up is yellow - of course - stands look good . Beans ??  A lot of beans planted - Some in the Southern part of the county are close to the first tri foliate -   then the others are all over the place - some just breaking ground - some just laying there . Well be interesting IF we get down to 35 like some are talking - to me - its when they are in that crooked neck stage - just coming threw the ground - when they are most likely to get smoked . My Co-op buddy called this morning - the last two days all the talk is on re-plant - I don't know yet - I only have 40 of corn in the ground and quit when I heard the reports on this stuff moving in . " Time " will tell how that idea works out in OCT . : )))) 

 

A good friend West of Danville told me it's bad in this area - maybe as bad as he's seen it - already called seed dealer for replant corn - But !!!!!!!!!  This is only May 4th - still time to make a good crop here and over there - Now MO - there hosed - might as well head on down to FLA for the rest of the spring and go fishing . : )))  

 

 

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