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Veteran Contributor

The top must be near

or maybe only the CBOT top

RALEIGH FOOD PRICES, 1862–1865
    
Year               1862  1863 1864 1865
Bacon (lb.)     $  .33     $1.00     $ 5.50     $ 7.50
Beef (lb.)         .12         .50        2.50        3.00
Pork (lb.)        __       1.60        4.00        5.50
Sugar (lb.)         .75       1.00      12.00      30.00
Corn (bu.)       1.10       5.50      20.00      30.00
Meal (bu.)       1.25       5.50      20.00      30.00
Potatoes (bu.)       1.00       4.00        7.00      30.00
Yams (bu.)       1.50       5.00        6.00      35.00
Wheat (bu.)       3.00       8.00      25.00      50.00
Flour (bbl.)     18.00     35.00     125.00     500.00
lb. = pound; bu. = bushel; bbl. = barrel

    (From William K. Boyd, “Fiscal and Economic Conditions in North Carolina during the War,” North Carolina Booklet [1915].)

 

This usually come out at a new top.

enjoy

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8 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: The top must be near

beans? i just read the end of a 3rd impulse which almost made the 1.62 ext in new crop. also, it held the gap open from 7/13 - 7/16, which it could have closed (was only able to trade 3 ticks into, in fact) & still might, but it didn't resemble a mkt wanting to wait around tonight. Why didn't it trade to or lock on limit down?

 

corn seemed to testify it's rel strength/stage of development - amazing! ANYONE else impressed w/ corn's strength???

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: The top must be near

definitely suprised and impressed.  Thought sure it would correct harder considering how  many up days as it has had without a breather day.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The top must be near

Not really.  Corn has consolidated in a fairly tight range.  Not saying it won't go higher, but it appears it's going to take something bullish other than weather to get it there.  Beans have had two major key reversals in the past two weeks.  If I had to hazard a guess on the corn price action, I'd say it's going to channel in a fairly tight fisfight range until harvest unless the gov't steps in.  

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Frequent Contributor

Re: The top must be near

These prices had to be in Union Dollars. Looks like someone forgot the Confederacy had their own presses in New Orleans, and I bet those prices would be different in C-money. Tom S. in Tn.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The top must be near

We are not in a Civil War in which both sides destroyed the others ability to produce food and embargoed their ability to import foodstuffs safely or cheaply. The comparison is pretty silly.

 

Of course, VR posting Defcon 5 (and getting it backwards) should make one pause to wonder if the high isn't close. The global economy teeters and everyone seems to think that demand will not be affected. Really? (Demand being comprised mostly of spec money at this point, not real users, there are about a bil bu of beans owned by folks who don't ever plan to use them. Something to think about.

 

Implementing a reasoned plan is far better than waiting until the drought peaks to pull out silly historical precedents that no longer apply.

 

Nox has this right. Food inflation is asset value deflationary. Always has been everywhere it is tried.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The top must be near

Tom,  Neutral Kansas is not offended.  Smiley Happy

 

If there is a marketing plan out there that does not say sell as corn approaches $8----------dump the plan.

 

Sell, sell............  if you haven't raised it yet sell a little.

 

The only plan I am working on is my cropping plan for 2013 assuming another too hot, too dry year.

 

Markets and producers are in an extreme position-----easily offended-----------another clue.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The top must be near

Time,

VR is extreme 365 days a year------that is a hard one to guage off of.  

 

Reasonable plans can't say but one thing at this level.    When you find yourself at the drought peak the plan needs review.

 

I thought we were at the drought peak three years ago.  Smiley Happy

 

My future marketing plan is on hold till i get my production plan back on track.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: The top must be near

Maybe the market will just give back the $2 rally.  A $2 rally isn't even that much, the way this thing panned out.  6 weeks ago there was plenty of hay and record corn crop coming.

 

I will also add, when I post the top is usually near, lol, but there is so much press right now about the drought, the CME crooks will probably bust the new money coming in the market right now, so could be awful choppy.

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