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Advisor

There are contenders and there are pretenders

Seems we have a lot of so called experts on here trying to peddle their wares that can’t trade their way out of a box. I on the other hand called the lows and proclaimed better prices ahead. 250 dollars for bad advice gets very expensive.
8 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

Your new screen name is Marlon Brando, you coulda been a contender !

 

Tell you what, if we trade above $4.1225 on the front futures contract before we take out the lows for 2018, I will start paying you $500 a year for your market advice. And if we take out the lows of 2018 first, you buy 5000 bushels from me at that price that you said was the low. In essence, you'll be selling me a perpetual $3.2975 put for the price of your market reputation.

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

Lower your number to 4.05 front month and you got a deal. If not your just plain chicken.
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Senior Contributor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

Can't do that because for the market to turn bullish, which is what is meant by saying "the low is in", it means you have to take out the previous major high price. That price comes in at $4.1225 which was registered in May of this year. 

 

If the market trades to $4.05 and fails its even more proof of it being in a bear market, because of the chart pattern it has developed. 

 

I will counter offer you a fee of $1000 per year if we take out $4.1225 prior to taking out $3.2975 on the front month. 

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Advisor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

Baaaaaaack, baaaaaaaack, cluck, cluck, baaaaack
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Advisor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

Since you so chicken why don’t you focus on the contract that matters dec 19. Same bet but dec 19 has to go above 4.20. Seems like a fair bet since it is above your 4.12 front month. Are you scareded
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Senior Contributor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

I was born at night but not last night.

 

First of all I did not specify the Dec 18 contract for the bet, I said the front futures contract will trade below $3.2975 before it trades above $4.1225. Right now that's Dec 18, but when Dec 18 expires, then it will be March 19. If March 19 then trades above $4.1225 while it is front contract before it trades below $3.2975 while it is front contract, then you win. If neither price is reached, when March 19 expires we roll the bet to June 19. Its always the performance of the front contract.

 

One other thing. Substituting the Dec 19 for the Dec 18 is not the same bet, because the Dec 19 now trades at 30 cents higher than the Dec 18 contract. So for it to be the same bet, the Dec 19 contract has to trade 30 cents higher than the $4.1225 level, which puts it at $4.4225. That would make it the same bet. 

 

So the offer stands, I pay you a $1000 annual advisory fee if the front futures contract trades above $4.1225 before the front month contract trades below $3.2975. If the $3.2975 price is violated first, you buy 5000 bushels from me at that $3.2975 price. 

 

That would be the same bet. And I hope that you would win, since I always am looking for good market advice. 

 

About the chicken thing, they say you are what you eat. Remember that the next time someone calls you a Dick.

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Advisor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

I always knew you where light in the loafers
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Senior Contributor

Re: There are contenders and there are pretenders

But I am heavy in the pants. Ask your sister, she knows.

 

bwahahahahahaha...

 

Look, every one knows that when you call tops and bottoms in markets, you focus on the front futures contract because that is the one that is least affected by time value and storage cost considerations, and as such, gives you the best picture of what the commodity is actually worth. Cash would be a better indicator if you add the basis cost onto the cash price, but then you wind up with the front futures contract price anyway. 

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