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Veteran Advisor

Things are going to rock

And roll now.

Spring puts flu out and brings healthy normallacy In.

Markets are going higher too. 

 

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11 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

Hope so.

Although AUS has some problems and the curve is building in BRA.

Wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

LA is bad and some hot spots in TX, TN and GA. Their flu season is winding down.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

Wind,  warm temps,  fresh air. 

Calls are so cheap on most things.. How many pennies are in $100 contract position when each Penny spent goes up $10?

I'll use the $9 to $11 VIX of last year as an example. 

Say $18 calls were a Penney each then... For 2020.

Same calls are $85 each now. 

Not a bad return on that Penney. 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

If this peaks by mid-May, plateau for a month or so and is fairly well controlled by mid-July there will probably be 30-50M out of work.

But they might use their stimulus and UEI payments to buy steak.

The kick in economic effects will be massive and we are led by a failed business heir turned reality TV star and his idiot son in law.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

Having a sociopathic dilettante whose felon Father had to buy entry into Harvard in charge doesn’t improve my confidence.

Seriously. This is still a fun game to a lot of folks but it really isn’t.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

I`m not an economist, seems to me if there was a US "50 million unemployed" before the ink would be dry,  would go to 100 million unemployed as interconnected as our service economy is.  During the last 30 years when this mess was being cultivated the joke was "You flip my burgers and I`ll do your laundry"  Well now the burger flippers are carryout only and nobody has the money to have someone do their laundry, forget pork & beef luxuries, the Ramen Noodle packers will be all that`s needed.  

It took a worldwide Pandemic to take us briefly back to 2016 levels, yet your 401K`s are still better today!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

Wright ----- could you display the winner numbers on powerball twice a week?  It is same subject as long shot calls.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

I am also interested in his concept, just not now.

I’d be very pleased if I’m wrong and miss the rebound but that’s not how I think it will play.

After probably 8-10 M more unemployment claims next week it may slow to low single digits for several weeks.

If it isn’t that high for the week it is because the system can’t process fast enough and they’ll show up in following weeks.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

BTW, the spring thing is speculation. It’s not as bad as the “justacold, get out there and dine and shop” thing- which was/is heinous.

But be careful not to spread disinformation in a time of crisis.

All the internet pharmacists and scammers promoting miracle cures also detestable.

Senior Advisor

Re: Things are going to rock

Looks like some other folks have the same idea as I did about putting a little something on out in far deferred hogs.

FWIW, nearby LH came close to the .40 number that I'd thrown out several weeks ago.

Dunno. I'm not feeling rushed.

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