Thinking about lifting hedges

[jennys_mn]

If I go there, will he help me to forget all of your big brain posts over the last couple of months?  or how about this one:

you guys are missing the really good bear market

Options

2 weeks ago

In the bean market.  Corn isn't done goig lower and if it does go down to 2.90 you missed a 30 to 40 cent move.  Not small peanuts in y neck of the world.  But the beans have a huge decline ahead of it.  The decline is a function of both time (sorry to steal the line) butalso price.  Just like when hogs reached .35 cents in 98, farmers though it was too cheap and no way it keeps going lower.  Well we hit 8 cents.  Beans could have 3 dollars at the most to a dollar at the least of downside in them.  Just like in march when I warned we could see 2 to 3 million more acres in the june report  Just like when I warned we could see an 180 type national yield in the future (all I heard was that it is impossible because the  45 year average is 159, or buck is always wrong, or a rediculous theory about peak corn).  We have a tsunamy of bearish fundementals in the market,  the perfect storm as it where like the 11 and 12 bull market (whick we never have ever had back to backdroughts, so it is a golden bullet for the bulls).  The bears have been lying in wait for their opportunity to take a piece of the bull again and they will not let it loose.  The only reason to get out of a short account is if the moving averages or weekly low closes point to it ending.  Dont try to out smart the market.

Here's the thing.....I want to know the reason for your sudden change of direction.  Not just, 'I want some bucks in my pocket'.   Certainly, something spooked you into reversing what you said above just a few short weeks ago.  Let's hear it.  We're all ears....what has the big bear all shakin in his fur pads - other than winter just around the corner?   Or, are you Trying To Outsmart The Market?

Jen

[jennys_mn]

In the bean market.  Corn isn't done goig lower and if it does go down to 2.90 you missed a 30 to 40 cent move.  Not small peanuts in y neck of the world.  But the beans have a huge decline ahead of it.  The decline is a function of both time (sorry to steal the line) butalso price.  Just like when hogs reached .35 cents in 98, farmers though it was too cheap and no way it keeps going lower.  Well we hit 8 cents.  Beans could have 3 dollars at the most to a dollar at the least of downside in them.  Just like in march when I warned we could see 2 to 3 million more acres in the june report  Just like when I warned we could see an 180 type national yield in the future (all I heard was that it is impossible because the  45 year average is 159, or buck is always wrong, or a rediculous theory about peak corn).  We have a tsunamy of bearish fundementals in the market,  the perfect storm as it where like the 11 and 12 bull market (whick we never have ever had back to backdroughts, so it is a golden bullet for the bulls).  The bears have been lying in wait for their opportunity to take a piece of the bull again and they will not let it loose.  The only reason to get out of a short account is if the moving averages or weekly low closes point to it ending.  Dont try to out smart the market.

Here's the thing.....I want to know the reason for your sudden change of direction.  Not just, 'I want some bucks in my pocket'.   Certainly, something spooked you into reversing what you said above just a few short weeks ago.  Let's hear it.  We're all ears....what has the big bear all shakin in his fur pads - other than winter just around the corner?   Or, are you Trying To Outsmart The Market?

Jen

[425Cat]

Jen
Forget about buck. Look at the chart. Chart says go long or at least lift hedges.
Anybody can say or claim anything. Sooner or later reality sets in.

[425Cat]

Remember Jen there were people telling us beans were going to 20 bucks last year.

[rayjenkins]

Jen........a true commodity trader "reserves the right to change their mind on the next tick"

things change, and sometimes very quickly

[farmerguy89]

You guys call buck the jackass but Jen comes out making it personal when buck is all business all the time in the pursuit of making dollars and is not initiating the narcissistic war.

[Nigel]

Just Released....

Funds bought a net 8,000 CBOT corn contracts, bought 10,000 in soybeans, were even in wheat, bought 3,000 in soymeal and bought 3,000 in soyoil - CBOT floor sources 

[sw363535]

Thanks Nigel-------- I saw the funds were buying.

Purchasing a few bushels as well a few Friday and probably a few tomorrow.

Massive ego can be found on both sides of the market. 

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

I'm not lifting hedges yet, but I'm watching pretty close.  I sold some Nov 15 beans today on the rally.

When the time to lift the hedges comes, I'll see what the carry looks like.  If it is supportive, I'll roll the hedges.  If not, I'll cash them and start looking hard at how to market the cash side.

Lifting hedges is not really a big deal, anyway, because if the board goes up I think the cash will go up too, so what I lose on one hand I gain on the other and it is a wash.  That is waht a hedge is all about.

Lifting futures and optiosn positions that were hedging without selling the cash makes one a speculator.  

[jennys_mn]

farmerguy89, if anyone on here fits the definition of narcissistic, it's the self-proclaimed big brain himself. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't, but I haven't seen him to be the messiah that you apparently think him to be, since 64% of his recent kudos came from you.

What is it with you bearish guys, anyway? And why am I such a threat that you feel I need to be banned, or as someone put it last week - destroyed? I just want an answer. Why does one day up make everyone that's been saying "the trend is your friend" and "the sky is falling, so you better sell now!" and, of course, "we are nowhere near a bottom" all of a sudden start jumping ship like rats on a sinking boat? Or is it that you have believed you own lies for as long as you can, and now have decided to get out while the getting is good? A little "dead cat" bounce sure as heck shouldn't scare the bearishness out of you just yet - heck, I thought by listening to you guys the last month or so that the party was just getting started.

Jen

[farmerguy89]

No, you immediately made this thread about yourself when you posted. You don't get his sarcasm most of the time. And perhaps narcissistic isn't the word we need, but I was tired, and am now.

I jokingly advised a ban, because someone advised banning other contributing posters. You decided to make a thread to draw attention instead of reply in the context of the thread.

I haven't lied about anything as I can see. For all intents and purposes we were heading lower and had been since June.. Why cant everyone ride It to the bottom? A higher weekly close, plus a 30 cent rally we haven't seen in months is enough to make one exit short positions.

But the long term trend remains down, but the short term is technically up.

You just trade with your emotions and way overcommit to a position and it clouds your judgement. I'll follow the direction of the market, rather than focus on it going up all the time.

Everybody's predictions are probabilistic and I choose to follow the trend... And you know what, it makes money. We're guessing based on premises that likely lead to our conclusions. It's impossible to guarantee that you'll be right: otherwise there would be no risk in futures trading. This leads one to change course as necessary

Got it?