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09-14-2014 06:03 AM
Some are long some are short some are right some are wrong.
Yes we did lose production over the weekend in beans . Probably at least 100 million bu.
S ds and diseases will knock off a chunk.
Might take a little time to sort it out.
09-14-2014 06:19 AM
People do seem a bit testy, yes. Glad that I am not highly leveraged, and I do have some sympathy for those that are, remembering what it used to be like when I owed a lot of money and the rains stopped, or wouldn't stop, or the temperatures dipped down and I didn't even have crop insurance to cushion the hit if disaster struck. I guess the last 6-7 were so good in farming that it was an ideal time to pay down debt and get ready for the possible decade of low prices, and bare bones farming again. Not everyone reads the signals the same way, and that is part of the capitalistic model. Downturns are an opportunity for capital to get realigned, and while they cause a lot of pain, that is part of our system, or should be, GM, AIG, the banks etc....not withstanding. Part of the reason we are not having a recovery in America is that our politicians did not let the system work. A streamlined GM, without the union debts, would still be making cars and trucks and moving forward.
THe lows should have been put in for the crops in the short term, as the crop size is diminished, but it is not a catastrophe for the bulk of growers. THose that did not just get a frost that took the top off of their production, but a hard freeze may not feel that way. Again, my sympathy to those affected.
09-14-2014 06:40 AM
A alternate title for your post Cat, could be "Bucky gets Lucky"
But on a serious note, I know of one guy that was in with the banker all day trying to balance things to get opperating money this year...that was with $4.50 corn and $12 beans. I imagine there were a few in that boat last spring. Now this coming spring some will sit across the banker with a projected $3 corn prospect...if $4.50 barely worked, $3 is a disaster, maybe "call the auctioneer". Those folks come on here looking for market direction and they get bombarded with people making light of their predicament, bragging and laughing "the more the price goes down, the more I make! Har har har" and then "well you shoulda listened to me, you have no one to blame for not selling 3 years of crops that you hadn`t yet planted but yourself!".
So, putting yourself in their shoes it`s understandable that they do get testy.
09-14-2014 08:15 AM
It was the opposite the past 7 years listening to the perma bulls finally get it right then come on the board and say "If you didn't hold out for every last dollar you are gonna lose all your rented land" or "I am so smart predicting these back to back droughts that I am going to buy every last acre of land the comes on the market" or "we are at a new plateau and we will be able to sell 6 dollar corn every year, mortgage your future based on it". There are people like myself that sit down with a marketing plan and do balance and cash flow sheets. we know where our break evens are and have sold grain based on it. We have reached critical mass by not listening to the canary in the mine shaft in the farm bubble. People like me where laughed at for looking back at history and suggesting a big crop could yield 15 bu over trend and prepare for it. Or, like the june report suggested we where missing 2-3 million extra acres.
Too late now, now it is just easier to blame someone else instead of yourself. Unlike how I present myself sometimes I really do care about the family farmer surviving. I really do.
09-14-2014 10:01 AM
09-14-2014 10:34 AM
Well VrBuck it`s good to hear that you care about the family farm. The thing is family farms get slaughtered with every swing of the pendulum. With $7 corn the family farm gets outbid on rent by a BTO that rents it more for control of the land than the need to put groceries on their table. With $3 corn, the price of inputs all but guarantee a $1 per bushel loss will happen before their pull their planter out of the shed.
I saw a small exodus of young farmers coming back with the higher grain prices, if dad owned enough ground, perhaps that family`s land base could support 2 families again. The guy in my above post example, was working in the factory, grain prices went up and 5 yrs ago he went back to the farm, his dad is in his 70`s ready to slow down. Having only farmed 5 yrs, he was caught flatfooted. Every short position that makes out like a bandit is going to leave carnage like that in their wake.
i fully understand that the markets don`t discriminate and don`t have a heart. And if you make out good, it makes up for the times that the markets worked against you. But there definately will be farmers going out of business unless there`s an improvement. A trader might make his stack bigger, but that`s his game, that`s how he makes his money. That farmer only gets 30 or 40 chances at bat and taking the risks of growing the crop shouldn`t have this gyrations of selling one crop for $8 and the very next for below $3. That is the game though along with the weather risk...but I can understand why some get testy. Many of us are all being served up a big slice of humble pie.
09-14-2014 10:48 AM
i like to read the postings everyone puts on here. gives me an idea of what people are thinking around the country. some get alittle out of line. i just wonder how many opperations will go under with the down turn in the prices. looks like alot of opperations will get sold out or a dedt reduction, i think that is what happened in the 80's. i hate to see bigger and bigger opperations takes more away from the community then a person thinks. time will tell how harvest goes ,this years harvest will be forgotten about by december and we will be predicting the 2015 harvest so the market will adjust to that.. are food prices going to go down since the corn prices retraced 50%+?? i bet not.
I find it interseting that in the cotton market two months ago usda added one million bales to production then this week took away a million bales. i wonder how many opperations had to sell at the low price the last couple of months.
i suppose south america has too much production of corn and soy, might be a good year to take a vacation, use up the supply so that none goes to waste, if we keep over producing then we run out of room to store the commodities.
09-14-2014 11:36 AM
My temp was down to 29 Saturday morning.We had a rain earlier in the day that kept the leaves wet,only damage I could see was on outside rows,and next to waterways. My bigger concern is how green these leaves still are,it will be at least 3 weeks till they are ready,could be fighting mud and snow before they get close to being dry