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Honored Advisor

This is at least the third time

That as corn prices near $7.50 from the bottom, the locals just do not want a $7.50 price on the board. We have lost 7 cents basis in the last few days as cash price has hovered just under that mark..

 

Must be a mental block/line in the sand thing for them. As a producer I Have a $8.00 target to start sales. Who is going to blink first?

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8 Replies
Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

 I don't have a target price for corn as mine is all sold.  Half was contracted in the low 8's and the rest I sold off the combine at 7.40's.  When I do set a target price I don't use round numbers like $8.00 or 7.50 as most others do also, which may be why corn is struggling now.  If I wanted 8 bucks like you do I would sell at $7.89 and above.

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Senior Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

That is a very valid point NWOBCW, a few years back I was holding out for a $9.00 wheat sale.  The price moved within a dime of my target and I didn't pull the trigger.  That dime eventually cost me over $2.00.

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Honored Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

Corn is $7.70 this morning at a local ethanol plant.....$7.38 at a local elevator......It appears that ethanol plants are still making some money.   Domestic demand for the corn that is left appears to be continuing.

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Senior Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

Tiger 1 - That's a dang good point you made ! If you look at the percentage of corn used in the US , that would be some where around 32% -- of the supply on hand  , in the first quarter , with exports at close to a record low , then what's that tell yah ? Domestic use is the driver here with feed and corn for ethanol , years agoit was the other way around , wasn't it ?

Honored Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

Over the years my tendency has to sell more just under even money than over. Most have that even money idea and in the grand scheme of things 10 to 15 cents at these prices is unnoticable. Actually $7.75 is my first objective for the first half.

 

Just got to sort the needs from the greeds.

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Contributor

Re: This is at least the third time

I would not worry about supply at the moment. Here in southern Ontario Canada  we have all the corn you need. We have been offered  a little over $6.00 for our 2012 corn(not 2013)  so there is obviously no problem for end users here. When I see the prices quoted above I hope for a bit more but reality bites! Hopefully as some areas in north america  go short it may drag us up a bit. We had about half a crop but some areas  of Ontario  did much better. Apparently thats why we are where we are. Thanks.

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Advisor

Re: This is at least the third time

Holding out for round numbers is the worst. Got to make a sale within 90% of your target if the market direction signals it wants to move sharply down for a while. I know tonnes of guys that get caught by wanting $300/tonne corn that cant make a move at 290 to see things go lower.

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Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: This is at least the third time

Maybe the same thing as something priced at $9.99 is supposed to look like a better deal than spending ten dollars. Guess I've always rounded up, it's easier to pronounce that way. 

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