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Contributor

This is serious fellers...............

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Marketing/Store-your-corn-cover-your-hedges/m-p/7770#M1204 I am not posting this for an "I told you so", more for  credibility, so please don't take it the wrong way. I have taken a long  road trip today and this is far worse than I have thought. I  really don't think Mizzou even has a hold on how bad it really is because he is in the "garden spot" .  Wow, this corn crop is poor, much worse than I suspected for the breadbasket. Severe damage has been done. As I stated in the link, I am a historically bear really, but this situation is serious IMO. 

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6 Replies
Contributor

Re: This is serious fellers...............

I really believe that everyone thinks that this thing will tank come July. I am beginning to wonder that we may see something unthought of, even now. I just red my post from the link last year, boy was I wrong thinking 150. 

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Senior Advisor

We were a "garden spot"..........

cream blew off the top last week and things continue to go down hill.........starting to look like 2010.......maybe not quite that bad, but getting closer by every toad strangler...........12 plus inches of rain in the last three weeks on a few spots.........wet feet on young corn is not good........gentle rolling fields are washed out and have thin stands on the side hills........flat ground now has pot holes........

 

don't know how the rest of IA is fairing......parts of MO are still rough and not planted........S end of IL is not planted all the way and from what I saw last week and some more reports C IL is rough too...........we know IN and OH are rough.........WI and MI is rough.........MN, ND, and some of SD are rough...........KS and NE sounds like a mixed bag..........and delta corn apparently is dealing with heat heat heat.............I am still holding out for a decent crop, but we have taken some blows on acres and yield that are not coming back..........

 

EDIT:  soya are a sleeper..........planting progress likely around 65% tomorrow.........June soya do not yield like April and May soya.......and basically 50% of the soya crop will be or is being planted in June............

 

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Contributor

Re: We were a "garden spot"..........

I just looked at your post below, I believe we are on the same page.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: We were a "garden spot"..........

I just come in from spraying 400 acres of corn today. excellent color and stands. We're definately the garden spot here in N/NC Iowa. I do think Iowa , Nebraska, and maybe Illinois planted more corn.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: This is serious fellers...............Some more doom and gloom

Saw this on Agri money thought I would post it here.

 

Brazil farmers' bet on rain runs up further losses

Brazilian growers' gamble on a wet winter has turned into even more of a loser, with extended dry weather, also besetting rain crops in Europe, the Black Sea and the southern US, lifting concerns for crop losses.

Analyst Michael Cordonnier, who in late May estimated losses at up to 3m tonnes, said that they could now hit 4m tonnes "due to the dry weather".

In Mato Grosso state, the biggest grower of the winter crop, also called second or safrinha corn, "many producers estimate losses in the range of 40-50%" thanks to the early onset of the dry season.

The Aprosoja growers' organisation, while pegging the state's average losses well short of these levels, has estimated them at "perhaps 1.5m-2m tonnes", out of a harvest which had been expected at 7.6m tonnes.

"The climate is disturbing," Carlos Favaro, Aprosoja director, said.

'Very little rain'

Weather has also turned drier in Parana, the second-ranked safrinha corn-growing state, with rains at best half average levels last month, and mostly far less.

"In the driest regions of northern and north western Parana, it has been a month without significant rainfall and there is very little rain in the near term or long term forecast," Dr Cordonnier said.

"Some of the farmers in the hardest hit areas feel they have already lost 20% or more of their yield potential and counting."

The losses would further dent hopes for replenishing world corn stocks depleted by a disappointing US harvest – the world's biggest – last year, at a time when demand for the grain is being boosted by bioethanol plants.

Analysts are already downgrading hopes for this year's US corn harvest, following spring rains estimated have cost at least 1m hectares, and potentially 5m hectares, in sowings.

Bet on wet 

Brazil's safrinha harvest has been pegged by Conab, the official crop bureau, at 21.6m tonnes, out of total 2010-11 corn production of 56.0m tonnes.

The safrinha crop is seen as unusually susceptible this year thanks to late sowings, which left crops poorly developed when the dry season arrived.

"Farmers in Brazil had been hoping for an extended rainy season so that there would be adequate soil moisture for their late planted corn," Dr Cordonnier said.

"But unfortunately the rainy season ended a month earlier than normal and now their corn crop is suffering irreversible losses."

The late sowings were a knock-on effect from a late soybean harvest, itself caused by poor weather which held back plantings of the oilseed.

Weather allows Brazilian growers to follow soybeans immediately with another crop, such as corn or cotton.


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Frequent Contributor

What you're missing is.......

the fact that you and a few fellow farmers aren't the ONLY people that know we're hurt on overall production numbers!! Seriously? You guys think that nobody has any idea what the situation is? I've been around long enough to know better. It's a FUTURES market.

 

$6.50ish corn and $13.50ish beans for fall. Seems high to me. Too high? Maybe not, but it's sure as hell high!! I sometimes wonder how old some of the stark raving mad bulls are on these forum pages. Got the market cornered on information do ya? Right!

 

All that said; we're looking very, very good in C IL. We feel so fortunate..Hate seeing all the areas that are struggling!

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