MARKET COMMENTARY August 01, 2014
By Raymond Jenkins
Corn futures down another 5+ cents, soybeans down 20-26, and Chicago wheat eked out small gains of 1-4 cents today.
This is fast becoming the “wear you out” market of 2014. Or as one person aptly put it on a phone call this week: “I lost twenty cents while waiting for the market to rally a dime”. Lots of truth in those words, and we know a lot of folks just “know” that if they sell their remaining old crop corn and beans, the market will immediately stage a recovery rally.
The bid for the August 21-31 time period is 28 cents higher than what we are posting for the middle of harvest---which means there is still substantial value in moving old crop corn prior to harvest ----you don’t want to find out you have a space shortage when basis is 40 or 50 cents under December futures, knowing you could have moved that corn much earlier and had space to avoid some of the weakest basis levels during a big harvest.
If you are bullish a recovery in futures, simply put the old crop corn on a basis contract and get the bins emptied out.
Re: Tid Bits
USDA Notifies Producers on Acreage History and Yields
Written notifications from USDA are underway to farmers that provide updates on their current base acres, yields and 2009-2012 planting history.
Please cross check the letter from USDA with your farm records. If the information is correct, no further action is needed at this time, but if our letter is incomplete or incorrect, contact your local FSA office as soon as possible.
Verifying the accuracy of data on a farm’s acreage history is a required early step for enrolling in the upcoming Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) program and the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program. Later this summer, farmers and ranchers will have an opportunity to update their crop yield information and reallocate base acres.
By mid-winter all producers on a farm will be required to make a one-time, unanimous and irrevocable election between price protection and county revenue protection or individual revenue protection for 2014-2018 crop years. Producers can expect to sign contracts for ARC or PLC for the 2014 and 2015 crop years in the spring of 2015.
Covered commodities include barley, canola, large and small chickpeas, corn, crambe, flaxseed, grain sorghum, lentils, mustard seed, oats, peanuts, dry peas, rapeseed, long grain rice, medium grain rice (includes short grain rice and temperate japonica rice), safflower seed, sesame, soybeans, sunflower seed, and wheat. Upland cotton is no longer a covered commodity.
Visit www.fsa.usda.gov or the local FSA office for information about FSA
Re: Tid Bits
This morning's big rain event sure makes things look better already..
Just rinsing the dust of the last three and a half weeks off was nice.
Too bad we used up our allotment for the summer up in June.
One whole tenth of one inch.
Rain makes grain ... limit down in the morning.