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Honored Advisor

Tid bits

John Deere posted some less than encouraging #'s.

 

Prevent plant is at best 1/3 crop. It is a % of a % of spring set price.

 

Still better than nothing or an immature crop at freeze.

 

Went on a drive about Sunday, toured area from Mound City, Mo to Council Bluffs. Is.

 

Lots of split open bins, lost last year's crop, lakes for fields south of Plattsmouth.

 

Hwys still underwater, hwy 2 has had road rock poured on top of the pavement between barriers to raise the roadbed 15 " or so above water level.

Many county pmts have trenches washed across them.

 

Some fields destroyed by erosion or silt piles., saw several remnants of unharvested.

 

bean fields .

 

Was on one county pavement downwind from a large hog confinement that had flooded severely. The smell is still with me.

 

Several commercials lost bunkers of corn and saw one bunker of beans well watered.

 

Grand scheme of things pretty small % nationwide. Only makes a difference if it is yours..

 

Water dripping off of roof as I type this.

 

Looks to be a gift from mother nature for the producers on other hemispheres with a crop.

Did see quite a bit of good looking stands of corn across sw Iowa, still some not planted and lots of untouched corn stubble. Also some good looking corn has been planted in Missouri river bottom, across the road may be a lake but the sandy slightly higher ground is planted. Going to be Huge disparity between areas and even neighboring farms.

 

For the experts that promote sell it before you plant it, how's this working out for you?

 

On a serious note this could lead to a rash of suicide s, get help if you feel the need, keep in touch with your friends and neighbors. 

 

This too shall pass.

5 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Tid bits

Thanks for the report and good advice. Good to see your posting again. Missed you.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Tid bits

The smart alecks that sold their new crop APH last December, might want to now do the famous Guru cop out of "Buy a call to protect your position" before it gets too spendy. 

 

For some this weather situation will be a unrecoverable spin.  Hopes and dreams will have to go on the backburner. The "break glass only in emergency" sign...well, it`s getting time to "break the glass".

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Tid bits

Hey BA, loved the "Break Glass in an Emergency" thought....raining here again this

morning, not enough to matter, just delays our start another 2 days....  

 

The math that planting is still the best option is EXTREMELY different for each

farm. Everyone that I know buys up to the 60% number cause it was so cheap.

So, it is not 1/3 of a crop, not even close to 1/3. It IS 60% of a crop with no

input expenses. Input expenses are at least 50% of the crop value, so you

are 10% ahead not to plant...sort of...depends on the farm....and lots of assumptions.

 

For us, it becomes extremely difficult to find a reason to plant. You don't grow

average corn planted in the mud after May 25th. Not how it works in the eastern

belt. Plus, because IA/MN/MO/NE/ND are planted (according to the gurus ,otherwise

corn would be limit up yesterday), the price may or may not be higher than $4.

So, you can't plant counting on $5 corn in the distance, especially

with a trade war that might become more than words. Plus, we already own

Sept Calls that far exceed the bushels we would grow this year anyway, so

we will capture the price increase without planting is the point.

 

Plus, IF we grow an average crop planted after June 1st (like that is even

remotely possible but IF), drying cost will be at least $25 more than average.

So, another $25 of inputs...and this ignores the docks for damage and 

test weight that are normal in a very late year)

 

THE KICKER, the value of a fallow year and using growing carbon to rebuild the soil.

We think we can add .1% or more to the OM of the field if we grow a full-season

cover crop cocktail, including 80# of N. So, that in 2020, we can grow 220 bu corn

on 80# of purchased N. The .1% OM increase raises our expected yields by 4 bu/ac

forever basically.

 

Kicker2: What is the price increase generated by using PP in a big way. It would

be some amount and it might be a huge amount for the 2020 corn crop. Yes, the

country will plant 100 mil acres of corn in 2020, But we will have a chance to sell

it to the specs BEFORE that is assured.

 

So, for goodness sake, don't let a Tillage Company, selling iron with electronics

as add ons, lead your analysis of PP. :-) 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Tid bits

Hey Time, taking PP is a tough call for a lot that were thinking "maybe in 2019 I`ll get it in early and have freakishly good weather over my farms and I`ll have +300 bushel corn.  Someone else will have a drought and corn`ll be $5 and then I`ll start digging out of this hole I`m in"  instead the crop insurance agent hands you a  $300 check for PP and you say "Gee thanks, I`ll pay my rent and buy a happy meal and sign for unemployment the rest of the year".  In 2013 I took PP on a few acres and it was a leeeeean year for me in 2014, but if I didn`t have that PP check, I would`ve had to borrow more and I`d be in a even deeper hole now to scratch outta. 

 

A friend of mine was wondering why the "southern guys" don`t plant 90 day corn on June 10th or whatever and since it doesn`t freeze until November 1st it should do fine.  All I know is those of you below hiway 20 don`t like "early corns" <105 day...I suppose it`s like "here" we don`t like earlier than 95 day but way up north they plant 80 day and get cocky about the great yields.   I suppose "daylight hours" like in Alaska they raise giant vegetables in their short season. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Tid bits

I'll let the southern boys answer, but if you look at the heat

and forecast for NC/SC/GA/TN/KY you will get the answer.

It gets really hot, and rainfall can be really spotty in the south.

Thus, plant early and beat the heat. Planting corn real late

might be great, or a complete zero. I'm sure some will do

what you suggest, but does that help the nat yield numbers?

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