MARKET COMMENTARY July 23, 2014
We finally had a positive close in corn futures today, even if it was just 1-2 cents. Soybeans enjoyed gains of 15-18 cents and Chicago wheat was up 4-5 on the day.
We have recently gone through 2-3 years where the supply of corn in late August/September was very, very thin. That situation started to change with the larger crop in 2013, and we believe there is still a sizable amount of old crop corn in the country. In addition, the prospects for a large corn crop appear to be intact, although a 2-4 week dry spell could put a dent in the off the chart numbers currently expected.
I am not sure I have ever seen corn in Monroe, Lucas, and Wayne county look this good---the corn I saw yesterday in that area all looked like it was growing in $10,000+ dirt!
It’s time to be thinking about propane supply for fall harvest, and to also be thinking about your space needs for the 2014 corn crop. There are likely going to be some excellent basis improvement opportunities for those who can “avoid” the harvest glut and deliver corn in late November and December this year.
Be thinking about short-term storage options.
Re: Tid bits
Went on a road trip to Cedar Rapids, Iowa today.
I 80 east bound. going to be a good corn crop BUT saw a lot of corn that could have used 30 more pounds of nitrogen. Beans all over the map but generally short and somewhat ragged.
Came back hwy 30 to Marshalltown, Iowa then the diagonal to DM, Iowa. Corn even better but not perfect, Beans generally better too.
Lots of the corn still had yellow silks around the edge. many silks 4 to six inches long.
saw these on the way home...
Melbourne, Iowa couple of 400,000 class bins
junction of hwy US 30 and 330 Marshalltown Iowa area...
notice these are new in the last few years. better part of 2 million bu of commercial storage.
kind of forgot where in north central Iowa this was
Minburn, Iowa, Count the 400,000 class bins PLUS the "little" ones. Look at the shine. kind of new. Complete with dryer capibilities.
Re: Tid bits
Went to the funeral of an Uncle of my wife today...
this was read... It has been posted here before
by Linda Ellis
I read of a man who stood to speak
at the funeral of a friend.
He referred to the dates on the tombstone
from the beginning…to the end.
He noted that first came the date of birth
and spoke the following date with tears,
but he said what mattered most of all
was the dash between those years.
For that dash represents all the time
that they spent alive on earth.
And now only those who loved them
know what that little line is worth.
For it matters not, how much we own,
the cars…the house…the cash.
What matters is how we live and love
and how we spend our dash.
So, think about this long and hard.
Are there things you’d like to change?
For you never know how much time is left
that can still be rearranged.
If we could just slow down enough
to consider what’s true and real
and always try to understand
the way other people feel.
And be less quick to anger
and show appreciation more
and love the people in our lives
like we’ve never loved before.
If we treat each other with respect
and more often wear a smile,
remembering that this special dash
might only last a little while.
So, when your eulogy is being read,
with your life’s actions to rehash…
would you be proud of the things they say
about how you spent YOUR dash?
He was a life long farmer till retirement. He was 92 years young.
They Buried A Farmer Today
They buried a farmer today,
Gave him back to the dirt from which he came.
Earlier his family and neighbors walk by,
Looking at memories of a simple man’s life.
A table of photos, toy tractors and cards,
Telling the story of life on the farm.
There are the overalls he wore every day,
Except on Sunday, when he bowed his head to pray.
All things that kept him close to his roots.
Not born in a barn, but not far away,
From the fields where a boy learned how to play.
There are photos of his children and grandchildren, too,
And he and his wife, there are more than a few.
The smiles betray the hard times that he faced,
The worries and fears, the profits erased.
By weather and markets, out of his hands;
In the end, all he really had was his land.
The soil, the crops, and even the weeds,
To his way of thinking, that’s all he would need,
To take care of his family, and help them stay safe,
From a faster-paced world, not too far away.
A good life, a simple life, that’s what he led,
He’d struggled like most, but came out ahead.
And eventually, retirement, if ever a farmer could,
Stop worrying or working, but he did it, for good.
He enjoyed his last years, and made sure that he thanked,
The good Lord above for his life, and his land.
His time ended quickly, his loved ones in tears,
Hoping he knew what he meant to them all through the years.
Today they gather, to remember and pray,
About a simple man they loved, who was there every day.
Through joy and sorrow, laughter and pain,
He was there when they needed him, right up to the end.
Out to the cemetery, they carry him home,
To a small plot of land, just under a stone.
For they know he’s at peace, and praying for them,
As they stand on a slope, not far from his land.
The service now over, they leave him alone,
Knowing some day, he’ll greet them once more.
A dust cloud forms as the trucks drive away.
They buried a farmer today.
Re: Tid bits
Not big enough? how about these?
not to your likeing? Want to really be a BTO? chose one of these.
Is this the tip of the iceberg?
Re: Tid bits
Hobby farming could be worse right now.
We could be implement dealers who just got hung with a three store expansion and three new remodel projects on the buildings in the last 6 years.
Timing is everything----
Re: Tid bits
Early Morning Market Comments for Thursday, July 24th:
Grain prices are currently trading higher with corn 5-6 cents higher, beans 21-24 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.
Grain prices were moderately higher in the overnight trade on short covering. Ideas that not enough rain is forecast in parts of the western Corn Belt (although it will be cool) should limit any overall crop stress.
This morning's weekly export sales report showed huge sales for corn and soybeans, especially in the new crop position. Corn sales of 291,000 tons of old crop and 1.143 million metric tons of new crop were seen as friendly numbers coming in larger than expectations. Bean sales were expected to be big in the new crop but they were even larger than trade expectations. Soybeans sales came in at 226,000 tons of old crop and 2.451 million metric tons of new crop beans.
Huge sales have added some support to the overnight rally. The grain markets were due for a bounce and this morning's huge export sales numbers gave a market a reason to bounce. This added just a little bit of additional support to what some people are saying is a little bit of a weather threat here near term.
In the big picture, long term outlook really doesn't change much. This rally is likely to present a very good selling opportunity, not necessarily today, but over the next few days, maybe a week or so. Once the short covering subsides we believe that this rally could present very good selling opportunity. We're going to be patient, see how much higher this market may want to run here in the short term, but again we're going to be looking at this rally as a selling opportunity once it looks like it's starting to peak out.
Re: Tid bits
Is, do they REALLY need it, or have
They figured things out and think its
Isn't it funny how the markets go up
AFTER a big sale.
Effect of closing the barn door too late?
Re: Tid bits
MARKET COMMENTARY July 24, 2014
Today’s price action in corn futures may have been one of cruelest sessions so far this summer. Why? Because the overnight and early morning trade gave the hint, maybe just a glimmer of one, but a hint nonetheless that the market was finding a short-term bottom. Thus, we started with gains of 6-7 cents, but they soon melted away and were replaced by losses of almost the same magnitude before settling down 1+ cents in most corn contracts.
Soybeans endured a similar rollercoaster with several contracts up 30+, primarily due to the large new crop sales (90 million bushels!) reported this week. A single digit close has to be considered disappointing in light of those new crop sales.
We are entering the stage of the crop growing season that can be best described by that old statement “the first liar doesn’t have a chance”---and if the weather forecasts translate into some rain sometime before Monday, we are only in the first quarter of that game.
All of this can be quite unsettling after several years at much higher price levels, which means we are going to have to dust off the old playbook and rethink strategy.
We are going to have wide basis levels during harvest, but we also have carries in futures and cash markets----and if you are positioned with on-farm storage, you can recover 35-45 cents of value by June of 2015 instead of moving corn at the widest basis levels during harvest.
To top it off, you can generate cash flow by utilizing the CCC loan program, where the annual interest rate is 1.125%, which means storing corn for 9 months has an interest cost of less than two cents per bushel. (Iowa loan rates vary from 1.80 to 1.90 in most counties)