cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Contributor

Time : Tipping point

Hey Kenny how long are we good on this rally corn ,beans? Or will USDA spoil the party. 9 days from the start or will it extend??
0 Kudos
19 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Daily MACD ,weekly MACD turned up.
SHAKE AND BAKE BABY!!
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Its Ken btw...

 

You ask a question that I cannot answer. The entire daily thread on here is based upon bashing traders and NOT ONE WORD about strategies about how to manage the situation. The thread on our site is all about what to do and ways we can capture some of this speculator froth. The Elephant got spooked and turned to run back in the trees. Unless there is a real tiger in there (meaning drought) I doubt that the elephant tries to run too far. For those holding old crop, God has just given you a gift. Will you accept it or cling to bashing traders while the opportunity comes and goes?

 

Oh yea, maybe of value, normally a scare like this would last 10 days, tonights trade in other words, but normal does not have to happen this specific time. A flooding scare where there are very few flooded acres? (This is not 1993, yet)  BEFORE you all scream back at me...about 4 mil acres are flooded OR might not get planted out of 170 mil say (2.5% to round up). A very normal year by any standard. That means that it only takes everyone else to be about 3% above average to have a bumper crop. Plus USDA never gets flooded acres right and out of the mix until next Jan anyway.

 

Mr. VRBUCK will assure you that MN is way above 3% over average, maybe closer to 10. So, just consider finding ways to take advantage of the crazy elephant and not guess which way he goes each day...

 

Definitions might help: Elephant = Fund money flows = huge and stupid

Traders = CONTRARY to farmers who love to hate them = Sharp, bright, risk takers that create liquidity, very few of them trade enough positions to matter. Gio is a pretty sharp cookie. We like to study their actions and try to learn from them.

Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Sorry Ken,
Well maybe time for deep in the puts
0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

That was deep in the money puts
I do think you're underestimating the severatity of the damage done to some planted acres.
Thousands upon thoussnds not planted Mi ,Ohio indiana illinois.
In 93 we got planted..
0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Time--nice post, keep it up.
0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Can I call you Kenny too. Minnesota has high ratings but we never matter anyway. I guess that is why we use national ratings to figure out national averages.
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

ih...to add a little more depth....for new crop where we still have a year of marketing window left, I expect the price to at least test the annual high back in January. So, I would avoid using deep ITM puts until we test 4 or 4.20. Timing wise, that would either happen in August, Dec, or next June. Plenty of time to wait for a better opportunity. For old crop that I was primarily referring too, the marketing window for most is over in 6 weeks so you have stored yourself into a pressure cooker and have to think very differently.

 

Yes, CZ gets back to 4 and 4.20 we will be ready. Of course, it may never get there this summer and it won't matter much to our farm, just have to be patient. Remember I'm all about time, so August is just very interesting to me. Been writing for 3 years about a low in April or June 2015 so it is not TIME to be a big seller yet. Normal bounce off a major low before it test the low is 7/8 weeks.

 

just some added thoughts

 

The BIG GAME is in Cattle...HAMMER TIME BABY.  Wrong cattle was the perfect contrary indicator. This site has value if you look for it. Smiley Wink

Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Time--my crystal ball is cloudy. I sure would like to know where old crop corn runs to! Have some more to move at some point.
0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Thanks Time, appreciate your posts.  Keep them coming.

 

History has shown that this week in June is when many rallies fail.  But as long as the rains keep hammering the crop, it is a game changer.  Your comments on the Bermuda high over the SE warrants more discussion, as most dry patterns come from there for Iowa.  Now, a dry pattern would be seen as crop booster for a few weeks anyway and follow history in putting  a nail in this rally.

 

Interesting your notes on final national yield in wet years for IN.  Even a 3% below trend  yield would be a game changer, would it not?

 

Even in a disaster year like 1993, the markets did not respond until November.  So the risk for holding old crop seems high if you can't wait 6-8 months.  I guess it is how deep one's pockets are at the poker table and how much one can afford to lose.  I know I don't have the money to stop an 'Elephant' stampede.

 

Central Ia crop looks very good...except in the few wet spots...which are expanding.  But northern Iowa is were the bushels are and they are much better than last year at this point.  So I still think there is potential for a big crop in this state and much bigger than last year,  but just little to no room for weather problems in the next two months.  Probably too much backyarditis on my part.

0 Kudos