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Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

4 bucks z corn was tested. Anybody short it??
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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Trying too if we can get to grow.....  and ya I bought a little     that ain't short but it feels that way  Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Didn't short it ih, but did get out of some hog feed hedges placed on the 16th, nice 10 day run. Flattened out a little you might say. The internal dynamics of this move in corn are pathetic, so just beware.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Time,   I appreciate.....

 

Actually I am reowning some inventory moved at 70 over for a short period with a tight rein.  Hoping to add 30 cents on a portion of the sale with a fairly limited risk...

 

Thanks 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Buying puts on corn.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Dumped the puts . Took a hit but had to protect inventory.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Time please explain---- The internal dynamics of this move in corn are pathetic, so just beware.----

 

nothing to do with todays trade but I wonder what dynamics you expected

 

It had tested that low pretty hard twice.   And was resting in the area of largest previous activity...

 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Time : Tipping point

Good call SW
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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

I'm merely referring to the near vertical collapse in open interest on the rally up through yesterday, don't know about today yet. Plus it is end of quarter fund flows, just like 2010, only in the opposite direction. This whole run is mere fund short-covering in the face of what has to be restrained farmer selling as he waits to see a little about what he has in the field.

 

I scouted a few miles of that pathetic looking yellow corn today. By Friday it will green and dark green in many places. The roots are white, growing, and very low disease pressure so far. The yellow plants are 2 leaves behind in development, not the 2' it looks like from the height. In the past this type of stunting costs about 20 bu/acre, on 20% of the field, this year it might be 25 bu/ac on 50% of the field. So, doing the math, yield would be 12.5 bu/ac under trend. And  this only on 30% of the corn belt. (yes, I know 3 to 5% is dead...it dies almost every year)

 

Corn acres are there, the elephants are all running to the other side of the ferry, just might present an opportunity or two. Some thought I was crazy to suggest CZ could test its Jan high. Now that we are there, are what I view as terrible market internals, it is not a TIME to get bullish is all.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Time : Tipping point

No for sure not a time for bulling..... We are pumping nitrogen rapidly trying to get little yellow stuff turned around. 

And trying to get wheat cut........And there sits an opportunity presented by the market.

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