I'm merely referring to the near vertical collapse in open interest on the rally up through yesterday, don't know about today yet. Plus it is end of quarter fund flows, just like 2010, only in the opposite direction. This whole run is mere fund short-covering in the face of what has to be restrained farmer selling as he waits to see a little about what he has in the field.
I scouted a few miles of that pathetic looking yellow corn today. By Friday it will green and dark green in many places. The roots are white, growing, and very low disease pressure so far. The yellow plants are 2 leaves behind in development, not the 2' it looks like from the height. In the past this type of stunting costs about 20 bu/acre, on 20% of the field, this year it might be 25 bu/ac on 50% of the field. So, doing the math, yield would be 12.5 bu/ac under trend. And this only on 30% of the corn belt. (yes, I know 3 to 5% is dead...it dies almost every year)
Corn acres are there, the elephants are all running to the other side of the ferry, just might present an opportunity or two. Some thought I was crazy to suggest CZ could test its Jan high. Now that we are there, are what I view as terrible market internals, it is not a TIME to get bullish is all.
