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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Time got jumped on pretty good

back in July or so regarding an offhand comment on a 180 bpa national yield.

Gathering what I can from plots around the country,I think it will come to pass, and a couple higher on soys.

Blame Time and the dang lyin' gubmint, not me.

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9 Replies
ddtfarm1
Veteran Contributor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Very nice troll 🙂 !

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

I suppose the coming report they`ll go 177....no 178 and kick the market good when it`s down, Chicom buyin` opportunity ($ bonus for the bears!) .   But January it`ll be revised to 171 ...acre battle "Oppsey daisy where`d that 300 million bushel go?"  more cheese for the trap.   And they`ll probably go bold and call bean yield 52 and slam that down too.   With inputs, there`s chatter of going beans on beans, 5 bucks ain`t cuttin` it.

BADeere_0-1633522482073.jpeg

 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Nobody knew in July what was coming and it wasn’t that great, but apparently good enough.

For the record, you go in with decent moisture, plant early under good conditions and get a dry June, crops can amaze you.

As far as next year, let the market work. If there’s a market failure it is due to the market concentration in the fertilizer sector.

Identify it and address it.

BTW, add 150 mb more to the bean balance sheet and have a decent crop in SA, the bid for acres won’t be how high corn goes, it will be how low beans go in relation.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

I`ve heard Angie Setzer lament on setting up a plan for profit protection, only to have to good market plan not be as good as doing nothing.  And that`s the tough part of being a market advisor, your job is to keep your customers in business, not hit the coffee shop bragging rights that comes from swinging for the upper deck and getting "lucky". 

I understand, someone will advise clients to "lock in a profit in June"  and it`s only human nature to sort of hope the market drops so will clients say "Thank God, I listened to my advisor and locked in profits".   I sympathize with the advisor`s dilemma.  But, every farmer`s situation is different.

I have a gravelly knob in a muck field, the seed dealer told me to try a NK bean that "you could scatter a bag in the parking lot and in the fall harvest 35 BPA" These genetics are very surprising, that gravelly knob has very good looking beans the first time in 50 years of paying attention.  It`s been a terribly dry year and even in wet years that knob burns up.  we just plant it basically to square up the field, but NK genetics turned it into production.  The number is NK S20-J5X.

Don`t know, perhaps even droughts no longer save us.   Soil has really became "something to hold up the plant".   

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Get a year like 88 or 12 and yields will come in 25-30bpa under trend.

Just want that kind of a year across more than a very small part of the belt.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Spoken like a true liberal.

Wants everybody to be miserable and have a bad year.

Buzz off

illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

The old saying goes much nicer to have half a crop at double the money.  Input costs go down rents go down grocery stores go down we farmers make the same money at half the work.  Every year there’s a bumper crop these guys bid themselves right of the job and everyone pays for it.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Contrary to popular opinion, facts are not liberal.

Well, might be.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Time got jumped on pretty good

Excuse me.

Autocorrected from “wasn’t” to “want”.

But it wasn’t, obviously.

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