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Senior Contributor

Time: wheat market

Hey Time you wanna weigh in on the wheat market
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Senior Contributor

Re: Time: wheat market

     Wher is palouse?

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Advisor

Re: Time: wheat market

Current S and D's for wheat look pretty wretched, both US and World.

 

I'm not sure what the impact of the significant quality problems will be- my guess is that since the world has ample supplies it will tend to just make buyers shy away from US origin.

 

And, looking at the FAS historical numbers there is only one year in 20 when the world balance sheet tightened as much as it would require for next year to get tight.

 

BTW, thatwas, I believe 2001-02. World wheat tightening was a prerequisite for the corn bull that developed later- wheat is always the elephant in the room on corn- it will over/underperform its own fundamentals depending on the wheat outlook. We've now rebuilt world stocks to pre-boom levels.

 

I expect the corn balance sheet to tighten up but expect it to underperform fundamental expectations based on wheat and general commodity punkiness.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Time: wheat market

Hi IH, been out for RR, I just think it is a great time to buy wheat. KC is technically in a better place as OI has skyrocketed and the commercials are long. At this point, it has overrun to the downside by about 5 weeks, hardly a crisis on a 180 week count, just tough is all. How much worse can the news get?

 

Agree with everything that H says, except that I view it all to be today's price. Since price changes before the commonly agreed upon S&D, the time for a low is close. I'd call it Friday, but I did that a few weeks ago as well. Info is worth what you paid for it.

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