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vrbuck
Advisor

Timing tomorrow

Possible fibbinocci swing tomorrow. It seems like everyone is depressed enough for a bounce.
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5 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Timing tomorrow

Remains mostly a game of weather/forecast roullette but there is some history of position squaring before a report, and actually even of a modest futures bounce In August, even in big crop years.

 

But I can't find a compelling reason to cover puts or roll them down very far, giving up some potential further gain.

 

Guess if I was inclined to play I'd buy some Sep calls.

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Timing tomorrow

Do you plan on lifting hedges on time or price?

 

My SX target is probably the end of September or first of October.  CZ I'm not sure on yet.  

 

The issue is not whether we have a good crop, that is very likely, the question is whether the prices have been driven down too far and start back up about harvest.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Timing tomorrow

VR and my plans are a little different.

 

For us, we have expected an early August low in corn, so we would be lifting, and flat out Exiting the corn puts. 4.50 to 3.20, maybe it goes to 2.90, who cares. Take the specs money and smile. Rolling down keeps you hedged at very low prices. Plus you have the ARC payment, and the INS floor, heck you are 200% short at extemely low prices, terrible risk management.

 

The beans are a different animal, really hard to exit any hedges there because of they are in a very different place in terms of market position. Specs still are long about a BILLION bushels...One rain and they are on the way to 7.90.  Plus it is a nice diversification to keep the bean hedges and exit the corn.

 

In our view, it is critical to implement the wheat plan outlined as well. Today is a very good day for our wheat plan. Very good.

 

Success is about balance, but also about being fearless at the right TIME. 

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Timing tomorrow

We are at the lower end of the range so it's like arguing over nickels and dimes. Could we go lower, sure. At some point cheap is cheap.
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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Timing tomorrow

It's clear that different situations provide different perspectives.  I am not in the farm program so don't get any insurance or orther payments and that may change my focus on what risk to assume when on the marketing side.

 

You're not the first to suggest that corn could bottom early.  I hope I'm ready to act if it does.

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