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Senior Contributor

Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

Here's what's shooting across the desk here as we start the week. What else is shakin' out everybody's way this morning? 

 

Talked to a couple folks out in Kansas yesterday...while I was talking to my northwest Kansas crop scout (my pop), I could hear the planes flying around in the background. He said since the wind died down out there yesterday, they were spraying like mad. Sounds like the rust is getting pretty thick in the wheat out there. Anybody else in wheat country having it flare up like that? Think the market will care? All this frost talk is probably my fault since I finished planting my garden yesterday evening! Dang it! 

 

Anyway, here's what's cookin' here this morning. 

 

 

The [A] List: 3 Big Things This Morning, Monday, May 18

There appear to be fundamentals driving the move, with weather concerns in the Corn Belt -- namely wetness and the potential for frosty temperatures tonight and early tomorrow -- and mounting disease worries for the Plains wheat crop keeping farmers on their toes as the market watches. "The big question is how far south it will freeze on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

Read More at Agriculture

Weather Starter: Rain Continues, Frost Nerves Rattle in the Plains

A weekend of active weather in the Plains and Midwest have ushered in what's likely to be a week of continued rainfall in the Plains and a night tonight that could see temperatures dip into the 20s in the northern Plains.

Read More at Agriculture

Market Starter: Will The Grain Price Rally Last?

I have to believe that rallies at this time will be limited in both time and intensity as they appear to be stimulated by a desire on the part of the bear to lighten the load with the majority of the crop development risk on the horizon.

Read More at Agriculture

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8 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

"Will the grain price rally last?"    What grain price rally?   What a dumb question.   At least if you ask why the sky is blue, you could get a scientific answer.

Honored Advisor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

wheat rust is bad in a large area.  Haven't had these conditions in years.  Rain south came too late for the dry land and irrigated is turning orange with rust now that it has started to rain........  

It is a variety issue.....

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

SW,

 

What are the varieties that You see that are better?  Most of my neighbors have sprayed at least once on everything and are on the second shot on probably 10%.  Even the dryland in the better sandy fields that lived till the rain have been treated.


On a second topic, south of You there is some Mosaic type wheat????  Tests are being sent off like crazy.  Some are thinking possibly septoria.  The wheat I was looking at was beautiful but will not make much besides Straw. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

In our area it seems even the "resistant" varieties are getting hit by rust. Maybe not as bad but still enough to warrant treatment. Anything not treated by now won't be as we're too close to harvest. I see some really yellow wheat in the area too no consistent pattern that I can discern. Some fiels have it some don't. Mosaic or BYD, probably, not sure
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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

Enough potential left in the field around you to justify spraying at this point, SW? About another 4-5 weeks or so until harvest starts around you, you think? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

Peaceman,

I will try to keep it fair to all concerned.  I like the ksu ratings book and it holds true for what we are seeing on leaf rust...

Best example we have is one circle that is drilled twice at angles.  Ruby Lea is infected pretty badly and Billings looks good, side by side...... both Okla. State products...

The Ruby Lea is getting hammered,  a couple are bad enough it is too late and we are spraying the others  Dumas on brothers to the west looks like an OSU alumni spray painted it orange......... from the road....0ne field.....

We have a lot of billings looking ok......  A lot of T-112 that is died early on the tighter ground to the south.....not worth spraying.. irrigated 112 not too bad yet..

Mosaic,,,,,  adjuster told me Friday as we marked three sections south for glyphosate cure, "there is at least two counties in NW Ks being wiped out with mosaic...

Not sure about the testing but all problems came on fast with the wonderful monsoon weather we have had....... conditions we seldom see..... cloudy and rainy three days a week, and cool ....

Wheat is taking it poorly but we had to have the help and a change from the last 4 years.

 

Clayton we are similar ---- we backed off spraying a few fields --- near too late with half berry made....

 

Jeff  --------- Yep,  sunshine will kick it in gear and 4 weeks will see some harvested    Weve had heads since last week of April....

 

Dryland is not worth spraying. Or not showing rust as bad....  The kansas sandy wheat will still see a few 20 bu. fields  Tight ground is waiting for the sprayer and adjuster...   Irrigated is all that is worth the spray job and it is getting too late...

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

Grandpa always said if I kept planting wheat I would run out of seed.  What is funny about that is he kept two years of seed.  His sandy land was always better for sorghum.  It is so dry here generally in the first 1/4 of the year wheat is a tough crop.

 

I didn't plant any wheat other than cover on hailed out corn ground.  Glyphosate in spring and back to corn. 

 

By the sound of the farmers at the church social last night wheat is in full decline here.  Even the fallow to wheat this fall will be sorghum or a forage crop of some kind.

 

The last time I had Mosaic in wheat it took a good crop in a good year and made it 15% of what a normal field would be.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Today's Starter, Monday, May 18

That's a good one.  And it is true   I do the same, I keep enough seed to plant twice and never haul it off til the combines roll the next year.....  Even for our sandier loams, we will always have wheat around because it is the one seed you can plant cheaply, year round, and get cover to fight the wind....

 

Mosaic is a killer and has to be rotated to something else for a couple of years...

Neighbor between us   ,,,, had a little shatter problem at harvest years ago.   volunteer came better than his original stand the year before,  he decided to graze it and then it rained so he left it and harvested it.  Bragged for a while that his volunteer made 40 bpa and the original crop only made 30....  Tried it the second year only got 10 bushel......

The mosaic he cultivated was so bad it infested the community for 6 miles to the north and east....  Took us all 10 years to live it down...  Once it is in the soil there is nothing you can do except out live the virus....

 

 

This is the worst leaf rust I have seen, but the conditions have been perfect and I am happy.  We have the moisture for a summer crop  or at least a start..

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