Some comments on the "Snout Counts" and another on Feedyard reminded me of a July21 discussion that began with sd hollow leg saying we are in a reality situation where 190 bu corn was and is true for 2021. Facts are we know now that was not true then or the this year either.
But I distinctly remember Ray Jenkins and Time both disputing the "sd" assumption of data and asking for references. Which in true sd form never came and the final entry presented usda's chart of their guesses at corn yields year to year.....
Not factual but based on "Sim Farm" data which you too can manipulate and declare as fact to all those who might think you credible.
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This was the chart entered by WCMO at the end of that discussion that stopped the discussion.... after popspoppe stated that the US had produced 190 bu corn 4 of the 12 years between 1992 and 2004.
There are a lot of good acres across the US and at least 5 states that have areas that produce extreme yields with expensive water, non of which are in the corn belt. But looking back at that discussion in 2021 time has taught us a few things.
1. There are those who contribute to Marketing that deal in fake news intentionally and memory needs to deal with them..
2......And from the way Feedyards are buying up the grain coming off the combine at +$2 basis, there is a panic viewpoint to supply and a serious concern for economic stability in the coming months. (While unit trains are arriving from the north on October 1st 2022....designated to end users). My guess is the new crop is 30 to 40 %. out of the supply chain before harvest is over.
3....... USDA data is no better than a guess and has no communication with Harvest or the actual product. FSA personal can't help they have been converted to a police force and confined behind plexiglass or in line for the latest buster shot. This data source is and was well off the mark the last two years on either production or demand is very under estimated.
IMO ---- both.
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So you tell me..... Western ks irrigated was 15% destroyed prior to harvest(pollination), Dry land was 0 to 12 bushel/a production on the 12% of acres harvested. Harvested irrigated is yielding 100 bushel below normal yield on the few good acres being harvested--Rest is below that. If Illinois produces 300 bu corn, the Texas & okla panhandles, Western Ks & Colorado irrigation will keep it well below that 172 bu average.
Rain has been less than 7 inches and very spotty in the last 17 months. Dry land is sitting with whatever it has for vegetation-- hoping the wind is gentler this coming year. No real hope for anything in 2023. Most are out of water and the Water Tsar in Topeka says no you don't, not before March 2023.
Mostly I want to point out how far off the usda data has been for the last three years. We were out of corn prior to harvest.... I would say August 1....... Panic buying ever since............. when in normal years feedlots are covered for 60 to 90 days going into harvest.... New crop usually moves beginning January 1..... unless it is sold at negative basis at harvest.
This is a different ball game. If you owned a feedyard with cattle contracted would you borrow more and load up on all the corn you can get at harvest at $8.40/bu? or wait to see what corn is in February(possibly $14 when Cargill, etc owns most of it. Someone who hates Rich Farmers will probably blow up the train tracks for extra credit at Berkley before February.
IMO. this years yield will be below 160. Harvested acres below 75 million
