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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Tomorrow's report

It will be interesting to see as to how WASDE handles there brother's #'s from over at NASS tomorrow...... I would not be surprised if they do not take the nass #'s to far and only raise corn carry out between 50 and 150 mil bu?...... FWIW..... p-oed

 

PS..... As you can tell Im less than convinced that NASS has the #'s right...... WASDE only has to use NASS #'s on the sept 1 report by law..... As always we will see.....  Disclaimer..... Im wrong a lot.....:~)

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4 Replies
p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Tomorrow's report

Just a follow up ..... I have been of the opinion that the market has been not listening to USDA(WASDE) as they have been putting out there monthly S & D's..... In my view they have been telling these markets that there #'s are what they think will happen not necessarily what is happening..... The markets job is to ration supply or increase supply to match up to it...... I feel that we can not go to a sub 800 mil ending stock type # as the pipeline is that big....... 632 was telling the market to ration usage...... Maybe we have ....Maybe we have not..... p-oed

 

PS.... 200 to 300 mil bu is truly the floor sweepings....... 

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fringeacres
Veteran Contributor

Re: Tomorrow's report

I am with you P O, many don't know that these agencies don't share, imagine that govmt overlap and inefficiency. Not sure how it pans out but the next bounce,,surprise # or planting delay,, I am going to go 100% hedge through puts and hope they expire worthless on our august blow off top.
The numbers are wrong because of previous reasons stated but we can work our hedges off of investor anguish. Speaking of volatility, if I read one more comment about investors ruining commodities I will SCrEAM. Caps style. I hated 2:20 corn with a passion and now we get to play with that as fluctuations. Feeders should hedge and pray for 14 billion to send cash lower. And we should both be thankful the investors will take our trades when we decide to lose our money. Have a happy happy report day. And may the odds forever be in your favor!
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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Tomorrow's report

Dam...... Off by 25 mil bu.......:~).......p-oed

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fringeacres
Veteran Contributor

Re: Tomorrow's report

We were close but my threads die a quiet death. Sorry I took out yours too.:-)

PS I am glad this report wasn't leaked. Somebody could have made a quick nickel.
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