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Took a road trip yesterday........
it was a short one, but basically across 34 to 74 down to Bloomington, IL...........saw everything from water on fields with yellow stunted corn...........to some good looking corn.............to some really short recently planted corn...........to freshly planted fields..........to fields being planted.............to fields that looked like they were getting ready to do something.............to fields that had not been touched............to fields being spotted in with replant...............
a lot to take in with that short distance............especailly given it was June 3rd..............seems like from about Peoria on to Bloomington is were I saw a lot of short corn, recently planted fields, planters still rolling, replant, and bare fields..........
don't know how big of an area that represents............but its June 4th now...........just more evidence of what I have been thinking.........
not sure if I have put this out here on this site yet.........but IMO we could very well have a realatively large area of the cornbelt suffer from heat and lack of rain, a drought if you will.............I am sure some remember the summer of 2005 and summer of 2008.........IMO it could be a blend of that scenerio..........seemed like both springs had some temp extremes in May with late frost of freezes...........then kind of a wet spell that lasted into the second week of June............then BAM............rains slowed down some or stopped and timely was key..............I know not all the corn belt has those conditions, just my 2 cents..............
threw in a couple photos of the river last weekend............river still above flood stage by a foot or so............seems like since 2008 it never gets down much below flood stage very long and any major event pops it right back to 15-17 ft.............photos are a little blurry, camera phone...........think any of its $7 corn..........
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And you didn't stop by?
I don't know how far south of Springfield you went, but within twenty miles the corn is really behind, if it is planted. We farm from twelve to thirty miles west and and NW of the capital city. Actually, and I really hate to say this because of everyone elses' misery (and a sure jinx), but most corn looks as good it ever has for this time of year. Beans look pretty good, but not great. We have caught a lot of showers, but no really gully washers.
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Re: Took a road trip yesterday........
Mizzou....just for balance....there is at least 65% of the corn in IN that will have to be rated G/E because it is. Sure, some localized flooding but guess what....that happens EVERY YEAR in IN....it is in the average.
Frankly, I'll give you the 4 mil acres out, and even throw in another 1 mil flooded late. What else you have? The balance can easily make above trend yields nationally (IA/NE over trend by 5% and MN/WI/IL trend and IN/OH/MI below trend by 5% = national trend yield or over.
Just thinking your emotion will not serve you well in managing risk as a producer. Long-term term corn settles into the 3.50 range, not 5.00. We were just there 12 months ago. You and I were both very bullish then. Staying bullish now reminds one of the old adage about bull/bears/and hogs. Lots of good corn around...even in the rough areas.
More numbers for you to think about. Our average emergence (not planting) date (and we are in a very late area ie finished Saturday) (corn planted 5/31 emerged this morning) will be roughly 16 days behind. With the heat so far this year, we have already recovered 5 of those days by my estimate. The warm and moist temps are producing amazing growth for early June. Stands are excellent even on early corn and beans. N and planted after the flood statewide means last years debacle is less likely to repeat.
Balance is healthy. Taking price risk after a $4 rally in corn is not. The economy is pretty shaky as well.
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Re: Took a road trip yesterday........
Thanks for the balance time...........as for emotion, well I guess you take it as emotion, I take it as something else...........as for being right or wrong........I am pretty sure I was calling for 2008 highs to be coming, last fall.........cruise on over to the other site and pull some history searches, or maybe you are from over there too, you have a familiar tone........
Lets see, the fact you are giving my 5M acres out is enough...........I can tell you right now IA is probably the closest to going over trend and I would be willing to bet its a struggle..........NE, no way, too much variability already and they could burn up this year.......pivots can only turn so fast and dryland fields and corners have made more in the last few years than ever before, not going to happen this year.............MN/WI/IL will struggle for trend (and when I say trend, I say trend for those states not nat avg trend)...............MN and WI are no better off than IN/OH/MI..........they are farther north than two of those states and really will run the risk of short crop..........remember that many of the northern and western states have helped carry some short falls in other areas the last few years...........they were able to plant early..........didn't happen this year.........
Also your IN number is wacko..........you must be from there or something.........but know of several individuals in IN and OH........heck OH was planting last week and so was IN.............sorry but you can't call it anything if its just outta the ground..........
As for staying bullish.........there is a difference between being bullish for higher prices or bullish overall..........I am already looking into 2012 and whats driving the boat..........old crop market has been rewarded, new crop is getting close but has a little more to go.........
This wait and see attitude is what got prices to were they are..........no one wanted to admit the 2010 crop was as bad as it was, even though it was far from disasterious for most...........which means demand is on supply heals and if supply trips demand is on top of it...........we tripped in 2010 and didn't know it till later.............2011 we have tripped twice and no one wants to see it yet..........it will likely take till later...........the mentality in these markets is the US farmer always pulls it off..........sometimes its outta the control of the US farmer............
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Well said tipping point, well said.
No need to elaborate on that. You're on the money.