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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

yes, it seems some believe highs for the yr are IN - thats my take from title of thread.

 

do you remember 30 yr commodity cycle thread-chart posted last week? poster was implying in that context - we are done with a 30 yr bull cycle and have now begun A Corrective cycle in commodities.

 

i tend to think outside the century, and we just might be in a larger cycle - millenia -wise.

 

the crb chart going back to 1900 - now looks like a solid uptrend - why would that be over now?

 

none of my thoughts on said thread were addressed by initiator???

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Honored Advisor

Re: Top in corn

you mean this is a corrective phase of an over sold down market???? 

 

Really --------- and I thought the carry out was going down every month.  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

$3.25 - fall 2014.  2nd entry.....................................

 

sw, if we are hearing ww - 30% winterkill in decent areas - could final be 30% lower than Apr ? 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

 
30 year commodity cycle: nox post from last week - i see blue line as we just completed corrective 4 in a larger 5 or 5-9 impulse

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Honored Advisor

Re: Top in corn

looks more like a record of inflation overall to me.

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Top in corn

CX,

One time you mentioned a super cycle at play. Was that a 30 year or 60 year??

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

guy that mkt's WD Gann's theories says (has demonstrated/illustrated)  that we're on some 30, 40 and 60 year timeframe cycles.

 

however, i've never heard any others speak beyond 100 yr cycles or 1000 yr  - which started percolating with me several years ago after 2000 turned over.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

Further,

 

the 114 yr chart on here - whoever created it - firstly, i don't agree w/ their count - they are implying 1950-1980 is big wave 3.

 

 

impulse from 1932-1951 is 19 yrs//// 1969-1981 is 12 .....current impulse is 12 or 14 yrs -so far.....BOTTOM LINE: this is not rational mkt counting for me......could just as well have at least 19-14=5 more years left = 1st impulse they have labeled.

 

if it was shown before 1900 - top in 1920 could be 1 -- 3 ended in '50 - now we are in a 5 impulse extension that looks to me to be within #7 of at least a 9 count.

 

i've never seen a 5 only 50% length of 3. in commodities 5 is 99% the LONGEST leg.

 

so - green numbered count is shot to flames for me. 

 

could be 30-30 (1.62X30=48 YRS.) = 2048-2050

 

THIS CHART SIMPLY IS not ENOUGH INFORMATION  to claim we are at or near end of ANY cycle - CRB wise.

 

the only repeating pattern is/are the 2 - 30 yr cycles -- in the MIDDLE of 20th century................. 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Top in corn

found a 200 yr commodity chart - the top around 1920 began in 1878 = 42 yrs.

 

one before that 1825 - 1865 = 40 yrs.

 

 the 30 yr peak to peak is simply a gross myth..........................

 

more realistic to me to see 1932-1980 = 48 yrs as 1 impulse---correction into 2002.........

 

between 40-48 yrs puts us 2040-2048...................................

 

looking back to 1900 stocks - impulses have tended to last 26-33 yrs. 1932-1965 - 10 yr correction 1974-2000 - irregular flat to 2008 + 30 yrs = 2038 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Top in corn

My sources indicate that we peaked right before Adam took a bite out of that apple......................................

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