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Senior Contributor

Re: Trade War

First, what’s going to be the consequences of cutting off China?  Low cost manufacturing will just  stop somewhere else, India, etc and we will just create another competitor, just like we’re doing with Brazil & soybeans.

Second, the real threat to jobs is robots. The young people that will prosper will be those that embrace the new technology, not the old has-Beens.

The way to win in the future is to compete not try to block China out.

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Trade War

Yes. Infrastructure and health care are two places that can absorb a lot of those displaced lower skill workers.

And renewables can be a monster job creator.

Trump rode the resentment against the Gingrichites* and Clintonites and those displacements to the WH. But the size of the bilateral trade gap is far from the most pressing economic issue.

*Republicans were the majority of the voting bloc for NAFTA and WTO. Clinton signed them.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trade War

I`ve said before, but we will always run a trade deficit with China.  They have raided the cookie jar for 30years, my beef with them is when called out on the obvious discrepancy China doubles down on it, they fart proudly right in our face.  And like I`ve said China could agree to EXCLUSIVELY buy US soybeans and pork to help alleviate this 30 year raiding party they`ve had.  Taking the US trade defict from $400 billion down to $200 billion would be easily counted as a "US win" and china would STILL have a $200 billion trade deficit and actually quietly really be the winners.  That`s something Sun Tzu would approve.

The fact that China doubles down on playing dirty should tell you right there you can`t trust them further than you can throw them....am I wrong????

The trade deficit is certainly NOT a diversion for the "vandals" the vandals have never been richer with the US running a trade deficit.  The vandals are the corporatists running infomercials every evening against the President and disguised as "comedy talk shows" in order to get back to the "good old days prior to 2016" when we all layed back and enjoyed it, instead of fighting back.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trade War

Hell yes Republicans supported NAFTA!  the Bushs, George Will, Bill Krystal, John McCain, Koch brothers...and all that ilk.   So what did/do they say about President Trump?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Trade War

I'm growing weary of hoping that you'll just admit there was never much coherence in any of it, just a lot of emotion.

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Trade War

Getting our soybean market share back- around $10B +- would be good.

And might have gotten another $10B or so in long term ag purchase agreements. Which would have been very good.

But those don't do much in terms of closing the trade gap, it that's the goal.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trade War


@sdholloway56 wrote:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

Note- we basically lost no manufacturing jobs due to NAFTA (the worst deal ever) but it didn't feel that way to people  caught in the shifts.  And it probably did contribute to slower wage gains.  

China's entry to WTO is a different story- probably near 5 million manufacturing jobs lost. But they tended to be low value, low wage jobs- total domestic manufacturing output stayed relatively flat. With higher productivity, probably the most you'd get back under heavy protectionism is maybe 2 million. 

It is estimated that universal health care would create 1.7 million jobs* and spending $1T on infrastructure over a decade another million.

Renewable energy will become a monster job creator- too bad we've gotten ourselves behind the curve on that.

_____________________________________________  Everything above this line is unsupported garbage..... I cannot find a source that will verify these claims.  Please provide some reference.

The two references above do not support this data and are immaterial.

*if you could manage to decouple helathcare from being a tax on labor, that's probably the biggest problem for US competitiveness. But the reality of getting there doesn't really seem to be imminent.


This last statement I can agree with.... but congress and the taxpayers are the ones who coupled healthcare to labor with the promise to the voters not to have to pay.   The deep pockets theory is the biggest problem.  Thinking our neighbor or our boss will pay the bill for my benefits is insanity....... Our love of corruption to the point of cheating each other creates a congress that will not say no to the irrational and costly pipe dreams.

A neighboring congressman was elected when trump was.  Lacking confidence in our system he took the $23M support from his party (california money) and he thinks that put him over the top.  It nearly got him beat in a race he should have won easily.  This is the problem of US competitiveness, we can't trust.  The congressman may regain his integrity and some of the support and live with his history.  But the real bribe was to the networks and  press that toed the party line and cashed the checks from the Congressman.  His district may never be the same.   How corrupt are we when one party spends $23m in one small district in a sparcely populated state.   That is our competitive disadvantage.  There is no limit.

Honored Advisor

Re: Trade War

This entry has so much false content......

I cannot find data that supports any statement on this --- from china s jobs data to growth in heal th care it is mostly false info.

Frequent Contributor

Re: Trade War

First, I am not from KS, the epicenter of economic insanity.

Universal healthcare would create a lot of jobs.

https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/01/pdf/health_care_jobs.pdf

And if you look at the graph from FRED (the gold standard in economic statistics) manufacturing jobs actually rose after NAFTA in 1994. And we had persistent high growth- and a balanced budget at the end of the 90s.

It wasn't until China WTO really kicked in by 2000 that manufacturing really took a hit.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trade War

From the fed chart of manufacturing jobs......... you supplies  — a very limited view of US jobs that includes mostly the most protected union jobs 

dec 1994 ....   17.2 million workers

dec 2010.....   11.5 million jobs

dec 2018....    12.4 million jobs

thats  5.6 million jobs lost in the first 16 years in a very limited number of employers (28% of the workforce jobs gone) ( does not include agriculture and much of small manufacturing.)

notice we only gained back 900k jobs in the next 8 years.  60+% of that gain is in the first 2 years of the trump presidency. 

Notice. The height of employment in the small segment of the workforce was in the late 1970’s at the end of the ford years. 

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