cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Honored Advisor

Traders market get on the ride.--Giolucas

Giolucas,   

 

Really a nice opportunity to buy into the over reaction of the lemmings......in soybeans..... 

 

What are your targets for buying in ....... or are you waiting...... ?

 

Just looking for your viewpoint.

0 Kudos
4 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Traders market get on the ride.--Giolucas

Sw,

Hope you are well and we have broken many support levels. Buying at these prices I consider a good opportunity. In the last few years, Buying soybeans at $9.00 has been a very good opportunity considering the average price soybeans has had. My plan is to buy at $8.99 and buy more if it goes lower. One of my worries is the political climate that could further deteriorate prices. If trump is playing tough to get negotiating power and China doesn’t bite then that could be bad for the ag market.

I would buy around these levels and protect yourself to only lose about $1,500 per contract. Just my thoughts.
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Traders market get on the ride.--Giolucas

Thanks for getting back on this and I hope the family is doing great.  Hope you're still having an influence on that extended "association" you have in the youth camping world.

 

A couple of basis notes hopped out at me yesterday.   Wheat harvest is in full swing in the sw region with generally poor crops and naturally are on the political ride as well with lower prices in the futures markets.  I read that Canada got some rejected by Japan for GMO wheat present in a shipment.--- a bit of irony.  But the basis locally, while the political is pushing price lower, is at record levels.  I have never seen a western ks/panhandle region wheat basis near 0 before this week.   Traditional basis for this area is -40 to -60.  My take is the real market (basis), which moves grain to where it needs to go, is paying back a share of the losses in the futures market and it gives us a clue that supply is not as abundant as the "talkers" want us to believe.

 

In beans...... the same theory applies..... I read yesterday that Brazill has a + 1.60 to +1.80 basis on beans at their ports now and have a backlog of ships to fill.  (a combination of truckers strike and big demand.)  And I keep reading that China has not stopped buying US beans like they normally do in the spring...  Both are indicators of strong demand.  

Basis is the tool that unlocks stored supply and when it is high at harvest supply is short.

 

We will not see markets that are not political, now that we are on a world supply format.  But I also think the downside is limited and buoyancy of strong demand is present.  Especially in wheat and beans.  When corn gets its E15 levels it's limited excess supply will also show in basis and already is for new crop contracts.... New crop corn can be priced well above old crop corn.

 

One other thing...... I drove to Hobby's area and ate in Des Moines Saturday.  He and I did a little sight seeing.    All the way the corn acres were dominant, bean acres seemed reduced compared to last year.  Wheat acres are down and much of ks has double crop potential for beans if they get rain.  But for now beans are not planted in the numbers they were last year.  Corn looked good but I did not get up into the monsoon region.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Traders market get on the ride.--Giolucas

Great info SW on the basis and I’ll again agree with you that the downside is limited and that government policy whether good or bad affects the ag market.

Finally, in terms of the youth initiative ji can’t believe we are on our third year and this year we are taking 200-250 inner city kids to nature.

I can’t stop this.

Honored Advisor

Re: Traders market get on the ride.--Giolucas

 You make a big difference.....on an individual basis,  the only answer for your concern.   

Expecting changes organizationally is still important, but it doesn't address the "heart" of the matter like doing something.

 

Proud to know about it, and thanks for commenting on a very appropriate "fathers day", your not a horn tooter.

 

Fathers deliver that message verbally a lot, but nothing sticks with family like an example.

 

Hope you enjoyed Fathers day.