Trend Line Yield Projections

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Here is an interesting paper from University of Illinois which says that increased corn acres will not result in much of a change in trend line yields.  Except that North Dakota is growing a lot more corn, over the last 10 years there has been a small change in corn acres from eastern to western corn belt.  But, there are no big swings in corn growing locations due to more acres.  In other words, increased acres are not out in some desert state where the yields will be low.  Increased acres are incremental increases in the states that already grow corn and have a well established yield history.  You may argue that new Iowa acres will be in the southern two tiers of counties (I don't know - just postulating a scenario) and the yields will not be the same as in the Webster prairie.  Maybe that's true.  But, it's not like it is dry land corn in western Nebraska, either.

Read this for yourself and make up your own mind.  It's not about whether anyone's pet idea is right or wrong, it's about how the market perceives this and how the combine reveals it.

http://www.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2012/04/little_change_in_where_corn_is.html

[vrbuck]

Try telling that to the masses

[Mizzou_Tiger]

those increases in the prime cornbelt states are COC............the article references IL and COC yield reductions.........COC presents challanges and risk along with amplifying problems to another order of magnitude when things go south.........and if things go well it usually doesn't blow the lid off things...........so its a net neutral or negative acre in terms of driving yields..........you tell a guy you want to do a yield contest field, he is likely going to put it on soybean stubble........not COC..........

as for states on the fringes, they carry weather risk as well, thats why they are considered on the fringe...........if it doesnt rain this summer in ND, SD, NE and KS you will then know why wheat used to be king............

I hope it paste correctly below, but I took the top 5 states in terms of corn acres...........you can see that rough estimates of COC in those states..........IL is 29%, IA is 34%, IN is 11%, MN is 12%, NE is 50%...........the point is they are all above ZERO, thus any new acres are risky COC............

	Illinois
	Corn	Soya	Ratio	Corn/Soya	Corn Yield	State/US
2003	11.2	10.3	8.035714	21.5	164	1.1533052
2004	11.75	9.95	15.31915	21.7	180	1.1221945
2005	12.1	9.5	21.4876	21.6	143	0.9668695
2006	11.3	10.1	10.61947	21.4	163	1.093226
2007	13.2	8.3	37.12121	21.5	175	1.1612475
2008	12.1	9.2	23.96694	21.3	179	1.1630929
2009	12	9.4	21.66667	21.4	174	1.0564663
2010	12.6	9.1	27.77778	21.7	157	1.0274869
2011	12.6	8.9	29.36508	21.5	157	1.0665761
	Indiana
	Corn	Soya	Ratio	Corn/Soya	Corn Yield	State/US
2003	5.6	5.45	2.678571	11.05	146	1.0267229
2004	5.7	5.55	2.631579	11.25	168	1.0473815
2005	5.9	5.4	8.474576	11.3	154	1.0412441
2006	5.5	5.7	-3.63636	11.2	157	1.0529846
2007	6.5	4.8	26.15385	11.3	154	1.0218978
2008	5.7	5.45	4.385965	11.15	160	1.0396361
2009	5.6	5.45	2.678571	11.05	171	1.0382514
2010	5.9	5.35	9.322034	11.25	157	1.0274869
2011	5.9	5.3	10.16949	11.2	146	0.9918478
	Iowa
	Corn	Soya	Ratio	Corn/Soya	Corn Yield	State/US
2003	12.3	10.6	13.82114	22.9	157	1.1040788
2004	12.7	10.2	19.68504	22.9	181	1.1284289
2005	12.8	10.1	21.09375	22.9	173	1.1697093
2006	12.6	10.15	19.44444	22.75	166	1.1133467
2007	14.2	8.65	39.08451	22.85	171	1.1347047
2008	13.3	9.75	26.69173	23.05	171	1.1111111
2009	13.6	9.6	29.41176	23.2	182	1.1050395
2010	13.4	9.8	26.86567	23.2	165	1.0798429
2011	14.1	9.35	33.68794	23.45	172	1.1684783
	Minnesota
	Corn	Soya	Ratio	Corn/Soya	Corn Yield	State/US
2003	7.2	7.5	-4.16667	14.7	146	1.0267229
2004	7.5	7.3	2.666667	14.8	159	0.9912718
2005	7.3	6.9	5.479452	14.2	174	1.1764706
2006	7.3	7.35	-0.68493	14.65	161	1.0798122
2007	8.4	6.35	24.40476	14.75	146	0.9688122
2008	7.7	7.05	8.441558	14.75	164	1.065627
2009	7.6	7.2	5.263158	14.8	174	1.0564663
2010	7.7	7.4	3.896104	15.1	177	1.158377
2011	8.1	7.1	12.34568	15.2	156	1.0597826
	Nebraska
	Corn	Soya	Ratio	Corn/Soya	Corn Yield	State/US
2003	8.1	4.55	43.82716	12.65	146	1.0267229
2004	8.25	4.8	41.81818	13.05	166	1.0349127
2005	8.5	4.7	44.70588	13.2	154	1.0412441
2006	8.1	5.05	37.65432	13.15	152	1.01945
2007	9.4	3.87	58.82979	13.27	160	1.061712
2008	8.8	4.9	44.31818	13.7	163	1.0591293
2009	9.15	4.8	47.54098	13.95	178	1.0807529
2010	9.15	5.15	43.71585	14.3	166	1.0863874
2011	9.85	4.9	50.25381	14.75	160	1.0869565

[SouthWestOhio]

Thanks for the tables. Did you make them or were these available somewhere? Was hoping to see Ohio.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Made em..........

[timetippingpt]

It would only be rational to REMEMBER that there is also weather risk of a GOOD crop on marginal acres.

We have had fields that went 145 last year, do over 215 in a good year. Neighbors with fields over gravel went 75 last year, did 204 in the last good year. It goes both ways.

Oooppss, sorry, rational news is not bullish. Back to the tile plow.

[Rick Bee]

 Some perspective on added acres for corn .

All the fuss about extra acres lowering the trendline yield is not worth worrying about compared to what the seasons weather brings. If you take 91 mil acres times 150bu/acre, you get 13.65 bil bu. If you add 4 mil acres that only yields 100 bu/acre, you add 400 mil bu,or .4bil bu for a total of 14.05 bil bu. Average yield is now 147.7 bu. on 95 mil acres. So 4 mil added acres at a lousy 100 yield only drops the average 2.3 bu/acre. Big whoop. One good timely rain in the corn belt is probably worth 4 times that.

[hardnox604008]

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.asp

Simple extrapolation of the trendline on NASS cahrt above puts trned 158-9 ish. (Sorry Monsanta/NCGA, it isn't at the 170ish that you assured congress it would be at in the ethanol hearings. However, people are rarely called to account for giving specious, self serving opinions to congress even if they are for more important matters like WMDs, so don't worry.)

Extreme upside outlier years like 92, 94, 2004 topped trend by 10-12 bushels. So 170ish seems doable with exceptional weather.

However I must admit that my anarchistic streak sort of hopes for a 130 just so I can see what a train wreck looks like.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Corn on corn in Iowa or Illinois is likely as good or better than corn on sagebrush as some believe we will see.  The people who made the study knew they were talking COC acres for the increase in the top 6 producing states, according to a radio interview I heard this morning.

[timetippingpt]

A simply excellent point Nox! Excellent. Going to be hard to get to 300, if we can't even do 170 🙂

Your anti-ethanol views will of course bring you ridicule, or maybe a visit from a guy in a black car. 🙂

My math says we can do 175/6 if the weather is like 1994 (which we are actually lining up with in a fashion - warm/dry spring.)

Might be more important to be worried about interest rates.