Trend line yields
The trend line yields being used now may be to high i am thinking. The last two years yields have fallen off and have been said to be way below trend line yields. I am wondering if trendline yield may have been distorted by several years where weather allowed for good crops across whole midwest and average was better than normal. The thought was the improved genetics and better farming practices were real reason for large increases and some of that is true but it may not be as large a factor as we thought. If this is the case we may be projecting crop sizes that are overstated and may not occurr with these acreages. Also mother nature has way to undo even best genetics, Chemicals, and farming practices to counter what we are growing. I look at how roundup is gradually becoming less and less effective in realative short time. These are just some thoughts i have and wonder if somebody else maybe has opinion or counter thoughts.
Re: Trend line yields
I talked to an agronimist at a field day about yield trends, and potential.
He said in his opinion, unless there is some great improvement in genetics he doesn't know about, that yields will tend to top out at around 300BPA, a little more in some soils, less in others.
The reason being is water. To get more than 300BPA consistently requires more water than soils can hold without being oversaturated, and harming yields by having the roots TOO wet. To get more than that would require rains at just the right times, and just the right amounts, which just doesn't happen over a widespread area.
He readily agrees that yields can be pushed quite a bit higher than that (they can get 500BPA in greenhouses already) but exceptional yields will require either perfect weather or such intense management that it will be impossible to duplicate on a large scale.
My take - if corn prices stay high enough long enough, there may be a rise of smaller famers, able to intensely manage their acres, (or large farms hiring enough help to do it) instead of farming more acres per famrer, and with modern technology for both drainage, and irrigation, I think that ultra high yields can eventually be obtainable. However, it will take more than 2-3 years of high prices to make it happen.
No idea on who is right, just a few thoughts for everyone to ponder.