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Honored Advisor

Trend line ?????

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A whole lot of wasted time since we ain't harvested a bushel yet.....

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16 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

lotta comparisons on the PFT about the 3 year avg

 

just FYI

 

3 year avg on corn is 151

 

3 year avg on beans is 43.5

 

I do know this

 

Didnt get any rain last night.  Looks dry for the next several weeks.

 

Corn is done, most about black layered or close

 

Beans are just now elongating pods

 

not hurting for moisture yet, but we also got over and inch of rain last weekend on top of a full profile so things will finish out pretty good even with a dry September.

 

however many didnt get that rain or this one and things could start to sluff off pretty quick.

 

with the variability this year, there is no way we come close to the so called "trend" or the USDA number

 

many states set records last year or came dang close and we only hit 171

 

kernel count isnt there this year, and kernel size isnt either and we have huge holes across almost every state

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Senior Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

Boy - You guys have your heads buryied in the sand is all I can say ! Heres what Ag Resource has to say about it - lmao - Other known as the Sunday Funny Paper ! Man these guys are about as bad as they get

 

Quote : We sent a team across 2,000 miles of the Midwest August 15-19 to see how the crop looks heading into harvest. Contrary to other recent reports, we found little reason to doubt the USDA's yield estimate. Despite some minor issues, we generally encountered a quality crop

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

Just my opinion, but I tend to better agree with FC Stone`s numbers more than Pro-Farmer.  PF has Minnesota too high at 191 and Iowa too low at 180.  PF travels a pretty much "fixed" route yr after yr and that helps comparing apples to apples. But as Brian Grate of PF said, he was running out of adjectives besides "variable and highly variable" to describe the crop, trouble is the areas outside of the PF route will tell the final story, especially in a "highly variable" year.

 

Chipster found a 305 bushel field out by Spencer, well when you see one, there`s more. So, even with southern Iowa`s problems, I think FC Stone`s 187 for Iowa is closer.   Something PF found was some ear tip back, they though due to farmer cutting fertilizer and I wonder if that isn`t going to be a more common story in some neighborhoods.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

BA- That tip back stuff is over rated sometimes - If you have about a 1/2 inch tip back then you have your pop. just about dead on - if you have full ears - then your not pushing the pop to where you need to be . Now if it was , say an inch or more then there could be a problem - Just saying - the ones reporting may not know jack ---- about true corn production .

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

Ken, I agree generally about population and tipback, but here`s my anecdotal story:  I was yield checking my own field and was pleased with the fill 32k-35k.  But I got curious and went into the neighbor`s field, not to yield check, but to see the ear size, right away I noticed a mostly 2" tipback.  The population appeared similar to mine, though it could`ve been thicker, similar soil, ect.   The neighbor is good as the best and better than the rest and a yardstick to measure others by.  The only difference is, his field is rented, and it`s quite possibly that he either skimpt or forgone P&K.  But, driving by his field, it`s green and appears healthy, planted a day before me.  Perhaps it is thicker than mine, but it wasn`t noticable.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

They didn't find a field of 305. They found a field that had a yield check using their formula that calculated to 305

They had fields in IL in 2010 that yield checked by their math at 200+ that actually went across the scales sub 150

I had a field that had the yield monitor run over 230 for round after round last year with spots pushing as high as 330 and the final tally didn't get it over 200 for the field average.

There is way too much variability and way too many holes and way too many cloudy cool days and way too little rain in late July and August for this crop to be anything better than average. And average is not 164 or 168 or 171. It's in the 150's

Same with beans.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

I have seen a lot of nice "parts of fields" ,,,, with yellow low areas and holes of drown outs.  There are a few fields with no damage,,,once in a great while....   

 

Irrigation ........ the low spots and old ponds are not the best crop in the field,  They are the empty spot in the field.

 

It takes consistancy to make "good" yield averages..... 

 

We have a very average corn crop with a lot of weak spots....

 

Dry land milo will help out in Ks,  we finally have a harvestable crop across the state instead of just small areas...

 

It is amazing what passes for a good crop when you have looked at drought poor crops for a few years...

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Trend line ?????

My brother is doing his part to control yields.  Left the gate open to 27 head of calves for the second time.  First time was a few weeks ago when I just happened to be in town (timing is everything) and they got into the corn.  Second time yesterday, they went for the beans this time!!

 

So maybe the rest of you need to follow his lead and control this monster crop!!  Smiley LOL

Senior Contributor

Re: Trend line ?????

It's funny how a couple years of 200+ bushels makes you think that is the new average. All set up for a disappointment if not this year, sometime.

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