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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Trendline versus Average........

YearCornSoya
2000136.938.1
2001138.239.6
200213037.8
2003142.233.9
2004160.442.2
2005147.943.3
2006149.142.9
2007150.741.7
2008153.939.7
2009164.744
2010152.843.5
   
Avg147.890940.60909
Trendline Approx16244.25

 

Some of you may have seen this already, I posted about this on the other site...........however felt I would share here too.........long and the short is average is well below trend...........and IMO I think we are flattening out on yields..........I have many reasons for this, not going to go into them on this post........this crop, corn and soya both is going down hill, and in some cases fast.........and its in a year when we need it all..........we are now staring at a best case scenario of around 12.8B and that could go down and 3.01B and that too could go down..........this is all in a year when we needed it all..........

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16 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

Totally agree with you on yield increases leveling off. All about water, too much or too little, or both to maximize the genetics.

 

That said, it is a big jump to think the 10 year average is appropriate. A far better representation of the new lines of triples and their clearly superior heat tolerence is the 5 year average (which is when they were introduced), which is at 154. I'm using a 153 and have been for awhile.

 

My concern is that there is already alot of a 153 average in a 6.88 dec corn price. Plus you have the Auggy crop report coming up in which the USDA will MISS yields high just like last year, for a lot of the same "systemic" reasons. Scouted our fields in a helicopter today and am not ashamed to say that every field in our county looks pathetic. Too wet, planted late, now to hot and dry. Since USDA does not pull back husks for the aug report...the data will be meaningless from what I've walked and flew over. Just in our local area it is worse than 95, more like 83. (meaning 70 bu below trend) not that a local area matters in any way.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

153 on how many acres........

I agree that $7 corn is ripe for the picking...........however, that 153 means two different things if its on 85M harvested versus 82M harvested acres...........a 12.8B crop with 13.25B demand would bring carryout below 500M............we know that number will never print as we will flat start running out of corn.........but that said, IMO, it will take us running out of corn for it to bust past $8...........

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

i am not arguing nor discounting what you two have posted. from a chart perspectivive, if cz doesnt take out 7.04 and close above it, cz could find itself standing on the trap door again. perhaps outside influences will trump the declining fundamentals for now. fwiw. ps my gut feeling on the national yield is 150 with the harvested % the real zinger.

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teaspoon73
Senior Contributor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

               People on the spring wheat crop tour had an eye opener going through  S. Dak and N. Dak. First day comment, was had to look for a Sp Wt field. Then walked through water looking at fields. Figured out the yield is less than last year by three bushel. What a shocker!  Think there are fewer S. Bean acres? Hope our friends in Ohio and Indiana have big corn crops because they aren't even going to resurvey out east.

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

   There's not a lot of corn coming from my sliver of the pie.  Les than half of normal even got planted and less than half of that could even be considered average.   There's a lot won't make 100 bpa and some that won't even make an ear.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

Yes, and it keeps raining on IA/S-MN/N-IL. I think it was Dapper7 that said it rains on the just and the unjust regardless. Very well said 🙂

 

Parts of IA will probably be getting into the too wet category again!

 

Friday should be a very pivotal "TIME" in the markets. Be interesting to see what happens.

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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

When you say pivotal times in the markets, are you looking for a collaspe or a breakout, or are you prepared for either?  You must be looking at certain numbers to say that Friday is pivotal.   Could the timing be closer to the report?

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teaspoon73
Senior Contributor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

            Corn should be done polinating so anthing that hasn't runs the risk of freezing early, resulting in light test wt. corn. Lots of fields in the Dakotas got planted late and haven't tasseled yet.

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hardnox604008
Advisor

Re: Trendline versus Average........

http://www.nass.usda.gov/research/avhrr/2011/period_30/r130ilc.gif

 

Most of Hamilton county does look tough here. Actually all of it that doesn't have subdivisions planted on it. Not sure what we got to your northwest that you didn't but still hanging on.

 

Last year was probably thye worst miss I've had on corn national corn yields so I'm pretty humble. My premise was the we'd come in near trend for lack of a major problem area but I was wrong- everybody paid their tithe on that one. At this point just saying that I think the 158 number is unlikely and so is a significant world or US stocks build.

 

Continue to worry about a '95 type miss to the downside and a bad start next year which is exactly what the USA does not need at this point. That is irrelevant to the decisions you or I need to make individually but another sharp rise in food prices might as well just get deducted straight off of GDP- or more- because the multiplier of lost consumer income is a heck f a lot broader and bigger than the uneven flow to the ag sector.

 

Like wise old Richard Russell says, in a bear market, everything goes wrong. And it is a secular bear market even if heaven and earth are being moved to avoid it.

 

 

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