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Senior Advisor

Trends in wheat are not good

The weather trends of too wet or too dry are becoming major trends in North America and elsewhere. I'm not hearing of expectations of these trends breaking down completely. It's too late for salvation for some areas and it will become too late soon for others.

 

Kansas is just getting pounded by dry weather and the spring wheat further north is in jeapordy more serious than the last wet period that also involved the Canadian plains .

 

I'm expecting corn and bean planting to 'muddle' through, and this is key to preventing more volatile conditions.

 

I don't have a good idea of the condition of SRW on a broad scale but it is apparently hurting in the delta. I'm guessing disease is going to be a big factor.

 

I'm fully expecting wheat to be worse off than most expectations at the moment.

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11 Replies
Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

 

Hi Pal

EU will support US-prices if not the opposite??

Precip much below normal och Matif skyrocketed last day and seems to hold today!!

This is sell-top for me !!!

Very strange with drought everywhere without Midwest and Ukraine!!!

My own wheat was badly hurted on winter wet and the drought...

Right now papertrade is a lifline.....

BE SAFE

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

All reports I have had are SRW is in very good condition in Ontario and US states around the Great Lakes where the largest area is grown.

That said I was on a parts run yesterday and I noticed several fields that look tough now, that I remember as being OK last time I passed them.

Am thinking those fields are poorly drained or maybe poor soil condition and all our recent rain has impacted them more than the land in better condition and with good drainage.

Not sure the % but expect condition of wheat in Ontario has deteriorated some in the last few weeks.

Still lots of good looking fields and N is on most now and spraying for weeds and probably fungicides has begun.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

I was just reading this morning only 3% of the crop has been seeded in the Canadian prairies. Thats not the bad part, what is worse is that it is so wet we are atleast 10 days away from getting in the field with good weather but with another massive low front moving it's looking more like a June 1st start for most farmers. This has been an unprecidented year so far, May 10th and I haven't even pulled my drill out yet. After last years early monsoon rains and disappointment of a mudded in crop if we get another week of wet weather I will not even bother to pull the drill out. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

Hard wheat is in serious trouble.

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Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

Hey Palouser,  where abouts are you from?  I am in the heart of the red river valley of the north and there has been NO hard red spring wheat planted what so ever in the entire valley.  There Is nothing planted in north dakota that i have heard of nor in north western minnesota.   The weather is cold and cloudy all the time and there is more talk of rain comming and highs in the 50's end of this week.  If it gets to the end of may people are going to abandon all plans of raising wheat and put in beans or canola.    This spring ( or what you can call it)  is one to remember.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

And north of you farmer3, they are going to break a dike and flood a large area of land because the Assiniboine river which feeds into the Red river is still rising. Just short of the record 1923 flood.

That land will not likely be planting wheat anytime this year.

They are still getting rain and snow to add to the high levels.

Here is one story

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2011/05/02/mb-st-lazare-flood-evacuation.html

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Senior Advisor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

I farm in the Palouse hill country of eastern Wa and N Idaho. Elevation @2500'. 25" percip annually.

 

A little wheat has gone in in the neighborhood, but not much. We usually have a good crop of winter wheat, though I am low on that this year in my normal 3 year rotation.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

I farm in NE ND and what i can tell you is that spring planting is in serious trouble. Yesterday marked 1 month possible planting window

for us to plant a crop and successfully reach maturity.  The ground is totally saturated up here and we were receiving light rain that looked like it had rained 2 inches.  The ground is still froze enough that its still pushing moisture to the surface to solve this we need warm temperatures but future forecastes are for high in upper 50's to the 60's and lows in upper 30's to lower 40's. What i hear is most of the state is extremely saturated and needs warm dry temperatures. Media reports seeding taking place but its on very sandy pockets in the state and that land will be planted soon but heavier and normal lands of ND will need some warm dry weather before planting can occur.

Our neighbors to the north are even wetter than we are we hear and last rains have went more up there in manitoba than here.  My best guess is that there's going to be perventive planting going on here this spring and everyday were delayed is going to add to that total. Also we have reached planting time that were starting to loose yield for every day that wheat is still not seeded. This year could be one for the  record books.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Trends in wheat are not good

 Good morning Ag-?

 I farm just along the Saskatchewan Manitoba border and we got hit pretty hard with rains yesterday. I just started to harrow a couple higher sandy farms 2 days ago but it was still too wet now after this storm it'll be a miricle if anything gets planted this year again.

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