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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Trouble in paradise

Kernel counts coming in light, even in the supposedly "best looking crop ever" regions.

No talk of double ears

Heat and/or lack of moisture here the next 10 days will pull kernel depth down and counts too

Beans are not even ankle high and have about 8 weeks to grow 3 foot, put on pods and fill em. Yeah cause that's going to happen

This market is whacked out of touch.

O well

12.2 and 3.2

We might be lucky to get into the 150's on corn and 40's on beans.

The yield monitors are going to tell a sobering story.
9 Replies
Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

To get average US corn yields in the 160's, the US as a whole has to at least have a better than average crop, not going to happen this year. We could still end up in the mid to high 150's. Beans could still average 40 bu or slightly better. A decent crop maybe, just not going to be a bin buster for the US as a whole this year. The trade seems to be at least a month or two behind.

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wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: Trouble in paradise

The market as the traders know it, trade the USDA progress reports 1st and  then any private source they may buy, including Sat photos etc.

"If" you are a producer and know the traders are wrong then you should have no problem betting against the market traders, if they are wrong, or with them if they are correct.

You know that eventually you will be correct

Options offer a low risk to put your talents to good use

For those better able to handle risk, both emotionally and financially, a future position offers great returns

I made 2 k on a bearish bet on wheat in maybe 10 days or less, a short time ago

Only had 2 contracts, when 2k came around I took my cookie

I am on the side lines as of now

I don't feel I have to always be in the market

Just when I think it looks like I should

Producers have a tremendous advantage over the market, so long as you can filter out the BS from your other producers

Always a producer some where, wanting to make the crop bigger or smaller, but you know that, thus one more advantage

If you farm, you need to know this stuff. You need to know your neighbour may be a BS. You need to know you are in cometition with your neighbour

You take a risk every time you plant a crop, get up in the morning, so learn more than just planting and harvestung

Edit: In Canada where I farm, I never have any crop isurance. Not economical over a 10 yr time frame

Much better to use that high premium/low chance of collecting [crop insurance lol] on reducig the operating loan

I could have 1/3 of my crop hailed out 50% or more and not collect 1 penny from crop isurance

That actually happened to me and also my son. Different yrs, but hail, just the same, Both of us had a farm hailed out

So" I know a bit about risk

Just trying to hekp folks realize there is more to farming than driving tractors and complaing about the market price

I sure wish I had you crop insur coverage, so be happy. You also don't have to worry about currency exchange values, so be happy some more We farm on 6"[maybe a bit more where we hve done a ot of fertility work] of top soil so be happy for 5' and hope  that black dirtit stays around for many generations. Our soil is brown and subjet to drought

No idea why my fore fathers did not keep going West until they stopped on some black soil, where the cllmate is mostly  favourable

I could take one yr. in ten with a crop failure of 150 bu./acre

Our land sells for 10-20 k/acre, depending on location

Problem is we have so very few tillable acres, compared to your corn belt, everybody wants more acres

If we move to your country, we are not eligable for crop insurance. Our tough luck

Nothing wrong with trying to improve on what you did today

 

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

MT, your assessment of crop conditions may well be true, but id save it 'til oct. or when the harvest price for crop insurance is determined. The market price timing in conjunction with the harvest price option can be really critical!! good luck to us all.

 

In my part of north iowa, old crop corn is really moving. endusers like ethanol plants are on shortened hours and local feed mill  (christensen farms at forest city iowa)allows 2 loads/day. Little local coop location is trying to empty, but losing ground with the heavy deliveries. Few days ago, we still had 700,000+ on hand at one little location . Corn harvest here in 9 weeks. 5 working days per week and it ain't gonna happen.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

Old crop corn piled in the streets of Woden??

 

That would get me to come back for a picture!!

 

What is local basis.??.....ADM/CR is at -2U last night

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

Quote from Wglass :  No idea why my fore fathers did not keep going West until they stopped on some black soil

 

Now thats funny - I asked my Dad one time --- Dad - when you moved here from Kentucty - WHY didn't you  keep going till you got to Decatur ??  ( as in IL )  - HE said - well Son - I went as far as my money took me - Well That answered that question - So thats why we farm this  next year country dirt - called Indiana Smiley Happy

 

One good thing about Indiana - Much like Misery - We did learn to be farmers - real farmers , instead of the pretend type from IL and Iowa where they throw out 6 seeds and 10 come up - lol

 

BTW - We are working on 4 days in a row - thats what I said -- 4 days ! with out a rain !  I'll be glad when it's Saturday afternoon - chance of rain ! Getting tired - Not use to working that many days in a row  - this year -

 

Everybody have a great weekend - can't believe its Brickyard weekend and my beans - finally closed the middles - they keep this up and they should make ?? 70 ? lol

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

ray, -38 at woden. I think it was -40 last wek. Hauled my last old corn yesterday.

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lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

No piles on Woden's street yet:

DSCF0440.JPG

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

I want to see that same picture on November 15 this year!!

 

Good luck fellas

 

Ray J

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hwr247
Senior Contributor

Re: Trouble in paradise

You may not be eligible for crop insurance but now you are able to sell your crops over here and get paid in US $ which is worth 25% more than the canadian $.....and you are using railroads and hiways we built all in the name of free trade!
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