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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Trouble in paradise

Have no idea what the final pft number will be but it sounds like there's trouble in paradise and USDA number is f-ed
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4 Replies
wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: Trouble in paradise

One thing that I have noticed

In the Ohio and Indiana tour, the corn that was estimated at 170-180 bu/a sure looked questionable, "to me"

If that corn does yield what they say, then we have better corn than I think, in our fields

Maybe kernel size, wt. is different "here"

However, there is no way those samples would yield 170-180 "here"

I agree with the samples of less or more than that range of yield, as being very possible

I also question how anybody can get an acccurate yield with so much variable corn, often in the same row, much less different parts of the field

It is human nature to want to sample, some thing that looks slightly better than the field average

I can't estimate my own fields because of variability [wet or rain damage] resulted in a lot of tip back

I can find an easy 50 bu. difference in 200'. Some stalks side by side

Maybe a stranger could do better, but I am not convinced

Just some things that look questionable to me.

I will admit I don't have a better way to do it

I have an idea the market price is going to wait for harvest to decide

Simply because this yr. is so variable

I also think "no way we have what USDA reported, although they may be giving themselves a way to back track, over time

Notice how corn price is slowly going up. The trade/market is also in doubt about USDA, although I am not yet in the sub 160 camp

I would like to know the acres harvested. Less than many think, might be the surprise, although not a major market mover

Use those farm bins if you have them

Store some for the neighbour if your crop is short and bins are available. That may have some issues and not for everybody

Just some thoughts

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

MT, it's funny how much the PFCT mirrors my mini crop tour a month ago. Most Pro-Farmer scouts knew the eastern belt was bad, but it's pretty obvious most didn't think it was as bad as it really is. How USDA, ag.com, and some of the marketing firms could be so far off is beyond me.  I still think we'll end up with a 12.8 billion bushel corn crop, no disaster, but not anywhere close to this month's USDA numbers. I think we are a dollar cheaper on corn than we should be.

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

As a poster on another site says once in awhile

 

"it's a process, not an event"

 

understand the methodology, and you will receive clarity

 

are you protecting  crop insurance and ARC-CO payments for the 15 crop by purchasing corn futures or options??

 

 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Trouble in paradise

A famous movie line comes to mind here........"Is this heaven?  No, it's Iowa."

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