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Senior Contributor

Trump money?

I heard on the radio that trump announced new money.  Does anyone have anything certain about how it's to be paid out?

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7 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Trump money?

Well not quite sure yet on details, however he still close to 3$ bil, short on last years so not looking good from a personal payment fulfillment. Farming programs get a good chunk, but the majority is paid to soybean farmers.
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Trump money?

First question that I have is what percentage of farmers have land in more than one county?

Second tidbit that I have to wonder if it is true. First news is that you get paid by where you live regardless of where your crops are grown.

Third payments are based on average county losses and every farmer gets paid the same rate. regardless of what they plant just as long as they plant something.

 

I can't see this being anything but really fubar. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Trump money?

I think the relief money is a good thing, it reminds the Chinese of how lopsided the trade imbalance really is, $50 Billion is collected in tariff revenue and a small sliver of $16 Billion is used to make the only sector harmed in the "trade war" whole.   And it schools the uneducated voter by clearly illustrating as what the 25 year problem has been, it`s getting so obvious that a blindman will have no excuse for not seeing it.

 

It tells the Chinese that the gig is up!   And let`s say that trade had been business as usual with no tariffs or "trade war" ...the ASF reduced demand for soybeans and we supposedly have a 1 billion bushel carryover, there just plain are too many people looking for too few chairs when the music stops.  Maybe beans would be 50 cents higher without a "trade war", but no one can honestly tell me we`d be $3 higher minus the "trade war".  

 

IMO, if we get a $2 bean payment, we are better off financially than had it remained "business as usual", though when you can`t get in the field, it might not seem like it, but the "trade war" didn`t cause the wet weather.

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Senior Contributor

Soybeans up in Eastern SD last week averaged about $7 while...

Cash bids for soybeans in Eastern SD last week averaged $7 while all last fall & winter Brazilian  producers got $11-plus.  The Brazilians literally sold out of beans by the end of Dec. while we had an extra 1.2 billion despite only producing an extra 137 million last year.

   I think you can safely say that the lack of sales to China were the reason.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybeans up in Eastern SD last week averaged about $7 while...

Explain this to me then, cash soybeans (avg cash price) was $8.46 both in March or 2019 and 2016.  Cash beans were $8.36 in February of 2016, 2 cents CHEAPER than $8.38 of February of THIS year?   See, that was BEFORE the "trade war"....it isn`t like this is uncharted territory.

 

2015 10.20 9.84 9.76 9.58 9.50 9.50 10.00 9.49 8.83 8.69 8.58 8.45 9.37 8.91
2016 8.46 8.36 8.46 8.93 9.61 10.00 10.10 9.77 9.33 9.22 9.36 9.58 9.27 9.34
2017 9.58 9.71 9.58 9.29 9.14 8.98 9.32 9.05 9.18 9.15 9.21 9.20 9.28 9.25
2018 9.15 9.36 9.64 9.75 9.58 9.52 9.15 8.38 8.44 8.71 8.49 8.40 9.05 8.60
2019 8.60 8.38 8.46

 

https://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/pdf/a2-11.pdf   

 

 

But are you saying, that had the $400 billion trade deficit with China not been addressed, then beans in eastern South Dakota would be $10 and it would be Brazil that would have $7 beans?     See what I`m saying?  If China bought our beans instead of Brazil`s then it would be Brazil with a 1 billion bushel carryover?   I don`t think so. 

 

But in selling the Chinese all those beans, who did they short and didn`t we pick up that business?

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Contributor

Re: Trump money?

It's a class war tactic where most farmers aren't in the same tax bracket as him.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybeans up in Eastern SD last week averaged about $7 while...

400  billion US  trade  deficit  with  China  population  of  1.4  billion  people  being equal  to + @  $300.oo  /  person  or  $1000  / China's  3.1 avg. family  -  -  - 

 

400 billion  US  trade  deficit  with  China  cost  the  US  327 million -  family size 3.14 -  to @ deficit  $1223.oo  / person  or   minus $3719.oo    /  family  -  -  -

 

Seems  an  AG  bailout  $$$  could  be  looked  at  differently ,  depending on  your  job  profession, &  how  would  this  rationalize  - ? 

 

Are  we  at  the  point  of ,  the  hole 1,  we  have  created,  just  dig  deeper  OR , 2,   add  $28,000,000,000.oo  of  deficit  spending  on 2%  of  the  population  -  -  -

 

CATCH  22  does  seem  a  fitting  comparable  -  ?          

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