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Advisor

Trump's retreat on tariff threat

today is Bad Negotiating 101- the Chinese now know that he is worried about domestic support- it was primarily apparel and gewgaws for Christmas- to be reintroduced on 12/15.

There's absolutely no way to predict what he'll do next but the possibility of some sort of a nothingburger NAFTA 2.0 deal that includes some farm goods might look a bit more likely. The stock market would very much like that.

Speaking of NAFTA 2.0- the rewrite of NAFTA with some microscopic changes- faces a tough road to getting ratified by Congress. Mexico and Canada are our #1 and #3 Ag export markets so it really isn't so great to be without The Worst Deal Ever. (Unlike appointments and such, both houses are required for trade pacts).

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16 Replies
Advisor

Re: This is just insane.

This is just insane, completely forgotten is any mention of the initial goals of this misbegotten trade war in the first place.

  It looks more & more like if there ever was a strategy it's gone, out the door, down the drain, vanished with the wind.

Can you honestly blame the Chinese for being confused, everybody else is.

  Is that trump's plan all along, make  everybody crazy, ruin the farm economy  and then declare victory?

Honored Advisor

Re: This is just insane.

The scumbag communist Chinese deserve to be lied to and confused.  As in all communist societies the 5% that control the guns, control the country.  Look at what they are doing to the people of Hong Kong.   The brave people of Hong Kong wave the AMERICAN FLAG and sing the American national anthem ...meanwhile in this country spoiled brat millionaire athletes kneel and burn the flag.   I hope Trump breaks that damned country and spreads democracy to China.

 

Image result for hong kong protesters wave american flag

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2019/august/hong-kong-protestors-wave-american-flags-and-sing-nat...

Advisor

Re: This is just insane.

Probably about as much use to them as we were to Czechs in '68 or Hungarians in '56. My heart does break for fear of what may ultimately transpire there.

Might want to read George Kennan's "Long Telegram" from Moscow in '46 which turned out to be a brilliant road map for how to win the Cold War.

TPP was a decent strategic move to contain Chinese influence and would have been good for Agriculture. Poking the beast for the sake of it isn't.

 

Advisor

Re: This is just insane.


@rickgthf wrote:

This is just insane, completely forgotten is any mention of the initial goals of this misbegotten trade war in the first place.

  It looks more & more like if there ever was a strategy it's gone, out the door, down the drain, vanished with the wind.

Can you honestly blame the Chinese for being confused, everybody else is.

  Is that trump's plan all along, make  everybody crazy, ruin the farm economy  and then declare victory?


Trump does not care. 

His modus operandi is simple:  " it does not matter what they're all saying. "

" the main thing,  Is they're all still talking.  "  hopefully bout Trump. 

Advisor

Re: This is just insane.

The trade deficit with China is about 2% of our GDP. I think we could get an agreement that would close that some. I think they'd buy beans, ethanol, DDGs pork if we could get enough ractopamine free.

The intellectual property issues are probably of greater importance to the strategic balance and a sober statesman might have made some progress there as well.

BTW China now turns out many more PhD's than we do and they'll be developing their own stuff more in the future.

BTW we didn't pay a dime to Great Britain for technology we stole in things like textiles and steel back when we were the rising power. But enough is enough, time for them to play by international rules if they want to be in international markets.

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: It is interesting, isn't it....

It is interesting, isn't it, that we didn't become interested in protecting "intellectual property" until people like Edison, Bell and Morse began to develop stuff worth protecting.  Then, boom, we couldn't do it fast enough.  The same thing will happen in China once they start developing their own technology. And it won't be long now, they're already ahead of us in several important areas like quantum encryption, etc.

   It's also interesting how cheap grain from the US and Canada caused the mass displacement of people out of  the British countryside and into the misery of the cities.  And there were plenty of British politicians who took advantage of that misery & unemployment to get & keep power by exploiting that misery, just like here.

  The the answer for  the British was to develop manufacturing of consumer goods which they sold to their colonies (captive markets) not unlike China today.

  In fact, for quite a few years, the British didn't have much use for or much good to say about Americans for all the same reasons some of us have for the Chinese today.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: This is just insane.

Get   used  to  it  ,   easy  win ,  close  Laredo  and  others,   and   we   see  how  that  turned  out,  boast   and  postpone - - -

The  mega  retails  are  the  tail  and  the  dog  -   FREE    BEER   TOMORROW,   and  for  a  hamburger  today, I'll  pay  you  next  Tuesday -  -  -

Ag   is   a  soft  target,   figure  it  out  yet  -  ?  

Chinese  Proverb -  To  Believe  In   One's   Dreams,   is  to  spend  TOO  much  time  asleep   -  -  -

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Senior Contributor

Re: Trump's retreat on tariff threat

Ag is screwed plain and simple.

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Contributor

Re: Trump's retreat on tariff threat

Have to agree that the objectives for the trade deal were never clearly spelled out. Most likely on purpose, that way any result can be declared a win. Trump is very much one dimensional. Came the Washington with a limited play book and what you do in domestic business doesn't necessarily work in the political environment. China has moved on to a different supplier and unless something serious happens won't be back like before. 

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