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Honored Advisor

Turnaround Tuesday

Looks the bleeding stopped overnight and the patient has stabilized for now.  Those that needed to get out of the exit door got out the exit door.  But really this shakeout wasn`t that bad in the scheme of things, it was probably needed, nothing goes up forever.  Last yr crop ins only guaranteed us about $5.65, you could get $7 something hot off the combine, now I suppose $6.60ish is the current cash price...that ain`t bad really.  But yeah the USDA hosed us, is that some big surprise? If a person has some corn to sell at these prices they should be thankful and if they don`t want it, I`ll gladly take it off their hands Smiley Happy

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7 Replies
Advisor

Re: Turnaround Tuesday

 HeyBA, I was told yesterday , that they are railing some corn into golden grain at mason city? (by a fellow whose son works there) Have you heard this? We live where there was a corn crop!!?? Are the bins that empty around here? Also. missed out on any rain saturday and niafarmer says we live in God's country??

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Honored Advisor

Re: Turnaround Tuesday

I haven`t heard that about Golden Grain, Ida.  Hanlontown as enough sourced.  But I don`t think there was any huge surplus in our area. Joice got cleaned up, Ventura never piled a trucker told me that ` when Minnesota gets used up, we`ll be out of corn for the summer` Monty didn`t fill his bins south of town Smiley Wink  It seemed like elevators didn`t like to get much over $7.50 cash before this latest crash, but that`s a darned good price, it`s understandable why they balked when it got much over that.  But it`s dry and we missed the 1/4" the other day and it didn`t rain on Easter Sunday so you can kiss good-bye to the "7 Sundays of rain".

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Advisor

Re: Turnaround Tuesday

rake pile is 'bout cleaned up and kanawha is cleaned up and I think clarion is cleaned up. FC by Britt pile is gone , too. Woden is starting to empty a 550,000 bin that usually clean out in sept. Talked to a guy that dug 7 feet and dry all the way down. this could get interesting.  There are no downspouts from the leg(yet) on Monroe's bins south of town. Would be a challenge to fill without them.

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Re: Turnaround Tuesday

Old crop corn chart looks particularly ominous with a gap .30 up from here that needs to be filled quickly or risks of  further rapid detrioration increase.  That doesn't seem that likely to me but I sure wouldn't initiate anything here; I'm not lifting hedges (puts) that I had before the report even if they go poof; if I was Texas hedged here I would be thinking soberly about my exposure if old crop corn went quickly to 5.50.

 

Weekly bean chart is playing around the neckline of a huge head and shoulders pattern that points to 10 if decisively broken. Again, doesn't seem that likely right here and now but I respect what the chart says is possible. As an old hand told me long ago, "never say the market can't do something because it can do anything."

 

Commodity complex in general feels sloppy with weekly Dr. Copper breaking down out of the most perfect contracting triangle you'll ever see. Silver also breaking down with gold holding up in a divergent fashion- consistent with a safe haven trade as compared to risk on. That would be consistent with my premise that the tailwind of money flows into commodities in general probably isn't going to be with us for a while.

 

Crude is the exception- oil is holding the indices up from a breakdown for now.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Turnaround Tuesday

50/50 chance that we see $8 corn before September. Most of mine was sold last fall for the $7.75 to $8.00 range and I am not going to get excited and wet my pants when the market goes down 10% on what is left. Land is about double what it should be for $5 corn and 200bpa land, and either land is going to drop in half or corn is going to go to close to ten. One part of the market is out of balance and if I end up selling corn for $4 and buying $4000 prime land , it is a whole lot better than paying tax on $7 corn and buying $10,000 per acre ground. My current bills are paid up and I don't have to make a sale until sometime in 2014 and I have lots of empty bins to fill with this falls bumper crop.

 

How do I know that its going to be a bumper crop this fall? Everyone seems to be saying so and the masses are always right, yes?

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old beans

look to me to be the more technically critical today.

 

Thus far just a retest of the broken weekly H and S neckline.

 

As I said, a breakdown doesn't seem that likely to me but I'm afraid the chart is hinting otherwise.

 

We'll see.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: old beans

hardnox,

if you follow the meal/bean spread---it got stronger today---and from my exp. meal tends to lead the beans.

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