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Honored Advisor

Two black swans

About to mate????

 

One of the bigger of the five volcano's in Iceland is melting the glacier on top of it's crater now and is 30 years overdue to pop it's top.

 

The one that went off in 2010 that shut down much of Europe's air traffic was the smallest of the five.

 

And this is on a whole nother scale bigger than that.

 

http://dcclothesline.com/2013/10/03/yellowstone-supervolcano-alert-the-most-dangerous-volcano-in-ame...

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9 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Two black swans

Did I mention MOTHER NATURE is in charge reguardless of what Al (I have no clue) Gore and his minions say????

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Senior Contributor

Re: Two black swans

An interesting read on Yellowstone super volcano, I'm not getting ready to pack up and move.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/04/yellowstone-supervolcano-eruption-unlikely_n_1569214.html
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Re: Two black swans

I could buy 1000 Dec '14 1040 strike wheat calls for .01. Put out $50k and some commission and if wheat goes to $20 I pocket $50 million. Actually doubt that it would stop anywhere near $20 if the scenario that the article depicts actually happened.

 

Crazy as that sounds (and is) I recall seeing a long term chart of London wheat where the highest price (until the 2008 spike, I believe) ever paid was in the 1810s when the Napoleonic Wars and the Year Without a Summer coincided.

 

So crazy stuff does happen although I can guarantee that there were millions more suffering than the few who got a windfall.

 

My luck Chicago would declare force majuere or whatever you'd call it and I'd get stiffed anyway.

 

But actually, the geologocal timescale of within a few tens of millions of years is a bit long for me. Was actually thinking about Fukushima- a much more managable scale- and how much it would cost to put lead lining in my grain bins.

 

Probably the better play would be to buy farmland in the southern hemisphere since all the stuff in the north would be radioactive.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Two black swans

There is no such thing as a black swan, merely a lot of really smart formerly wealthy people who failed to accurately discount the future. :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Two black swans

   A more likely black swan event, would be a dissappointing crop in S.A. and the the Chinese would take all and more of the cheap beans and corn they have already purchased. Two weeks of hot dry weather and you are there.

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Advisor

I doubt it will happen...

however, I'm looking on the positive side here.   For one, it said the Northwest United States would be wiped out.   hmmmm....What is the downside on this?

 

Temps lowered by 20 degrees.    Looks to me like a bumper crop in the making in most places.   As for the volcanic ash covering the Midwest.....I think that ash is loaded with fertility.....probably improve our **bleep**ty ground once we got it worked in. 

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: I doubt it will happen...

  In either case it would depend on the prevailing winds at the time. Could make a long winter.

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Advisor

Re: Two black swans

we can always get prevented planting! dang, I got alot of my nitrogen on , tho.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Two black swans

Sorry folks if she blows.  I was in Yellowstone a few months ago with 2 of my grandsons and we did some hiking and running around.

That probably triggered the seismic activity.