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Frequent Contributor

Two main reasons why I do NOT believe US soybean yields will move dramatically higher.

Soybeans continue to show strong demand both globally and domestically. In return you have domestic crushers trying to bid for bushels that US exporters desperately need for ships that and waiting.

Soybeans 2.png

The bears continue to point to much better yields being reported by US producers. In fact many sources are thinking US yields could jump from the current USDA estimate of 41.2 bpa to 43 bpa or even higher. I understand the bears reasoning, but I am just not in that camp.

 

There are two main reasons why I do NOT believe US soybean yields will move dramatically higher.

 

  1. When the USDA came out with the 41.2 bushel yield many in the trade were screaming that the yield should be much lower, perhaps as low as 37-38 bushels per acre. I have learned through the years those who are experience the most extremes tend to make the most noise. Therefore you have to recognize the fact we were primarily hearing all of the bad horror stories. Producers with good yields and good crops obviously didn't want to jinx themselves and or announce their findings until the crop was further along. In return, and having seen the same scenario on several occasions, the USDA wisely elected to play it safe by choosing to only move moderately to the downside. By choosing not to move aggressively to the downside they might not have to move aggressively back to the upside.   
  2. Now all of a sudden, rather than the woes is me producer, we instead are starting to hear from the producers who are beating their chest and have become overly excited about their "better-than-expected" yields. Like I said above, those experience the most "extremes" (either good or bad) tend to make the most noise. Most all conversation with these producers starts out like this, "My beans look great, BUT a lot of my neighbors really got hit hard and don't look so good..." My point is a lot of the folks sending in yields or calling into the analyst are the ones who are extremely happy with their results. Therefore, even though I believe yields have improved across the board I find it hard to believe the USDA will push the number back above 43 bpa.

Courtesy of the Van Trump Report

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3 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Two main reasons why I do NOT believe US soybean yields will move dramatically higher.

In August I thought mine looked very good then in September I thought average. Then harvest and oh man I'm glad I didn't contract much. Only yielded 40. At one point I was expecting 80. I've stated what I thought they would be all along. Guess now I know.
Corn is another story. Just getting started so I'll hold my comment for now.
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Advisor

Re: Two main reasons why I do NOT believe US soybean yields will move dramatically higher.

Average 33. Same ground 2 years ago were over 60. Ran out of H2O.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Two main reasons why I do NOT believe US soybean yields will move dramatically higher. really

1. "In return, and having seen the same scenario on several occasions, the USDA wisely elected to play it safe by choosing to only move moderately to the downside." FACT the USDA doesn't "play". They have their methodology and work the data and give theiur best estimates, period. Those who think differently use USDA making it up as an excuse of why they the observer is wrong.

 

2. Farmers saying i am good or I am bad etc is meaningless. There are 100k + producrs all over. 5 10 50 means squat. Net chart rooms are not a place to find iout hiow good or bad charts are.

 

FACT.  Beans have poor areas and much average and some very good. Everyone can guess state by state and come up with their #.

And soon we wil have the  USDA # which will be pretty close to reality. Could be higher or lower tan teh DEP #.

 

BTW did you look uo teh definition of INVESTMENT BANK, yet? Nothing personal but to be that far off is the

ultimate give-away. if Trumpvan charges he might run his letter for a year. Highlight the times wrong vs right and

and, then see if anyone wants to subscribe.

 

"Beans the only bull left" 9-13 post, still think so ?

 

Pritch

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