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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Two weeks and 50 cents ago

I sold 50% of my new crop corn. I'm half way there to the dumb bunny status.  One would be inclined to kick one's own butt if I was physically able to. But then what I have left is higher and my beans are higher and 2011 corn is higher, so why not look at the positive side?

 

I'm not going to get all there is anyway so why worry about a few thousand here or there?

 

I hope you fellow benefit from this opportunity.

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23 Replies
Mike M2692830
Frequent Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Don, back in June when corn prices were at the lower 3 dollar level, how many times did you kick yourself for not selling any Oct corn for $4 back in Dec of 09...now that that price has come and gone, I still remember that. I made a corn sale today for fall delivery at NCC coop(4.55). That makes my avg a little over 4 for sales made so far and I am also about 50% sold. Waiting for a pull back to reown those bu on paper. That way one can stress over the same bu again....MikeM 

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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Krafty...... You are but only a few of the nearly 5 bil bu of corn that farmers have now sold to the market place...... most of it I think to the funds...... I am sure the funds will be nice to the end users and let them buy it back from them at much lower #'s...... p-oed

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

If your numbers are correct, we could be in trouble.  If only 5 billion bushels of a 13 billion bushel crop have been priced which is only 38 percent or so, there's a lot of hedge pressure more than likely coming soon.  I've always been told that prices don't make big rallies until the commodity is out of the farmers hands.  Here's a question I've been pondering for a while now.  We know the index funds and spec funds own more bushels on paper today than they did in 2008.  When  things came tumbling down in 2008, the gov't stepped in and bailed out a lot of the big banks holding these positions.  Will the gov't be so kind this time around?  Will the American people tolerate round 2? 

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rightone
Veteran Contributor

Re: Scale the Up

Don, it's time to sell another half of the remainder.

 

Your in a good basis area ( the guys who are not, still have about $4 flat Net cash price today ).

 

Assuming the physical system there can handle easy delivery this time of year....otherwise a guy will have to store the sale till lat Nov or Dec when the lines are gone.

 

Don't know how the bigger yields N of ya are going to effect the deal...but there's a ton of 250 to 300 bu corn in N IA, All of Minn, some of E Dak, WI has great corn as does the remainder of IL ( N 1/4 ), IN has decent corn too and NE has good corn.

 

30 days down the road...there's perhaps gonna be a ton of folks who WISH they'd have sold some.

 

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zman343
Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Just sell some more.  I think everybody's looking back at 2008 and thinking $7+ corn was the reality.  When in fact the economy was in a huge speculative bubble.  The last time corn was his high, crude oil was on it's way to $100 a barrel.  Today it's around $75.

 

Funds are record long in corn and have an even larger position then back in 2008.  They will need to book a profit by year end in order to get paid.  Large commercial accounts are record net short, but their offset is their cash position.  As long as they have the ability to keep paying margin calls they won't panic.  Most small hedgers have been blown out or are close to puking out of hedges.  When the funds start to sell this thing will be violent to the downside because there will be very little buy support and lots of air between orders.

 

Bottom line is not to get caught up in all the hype and fundamental noise and let it prevent you from making smart business decisions.  Markets are always most bullish at the top and most bearish at the bottom.

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nutlug
Frequent Visitor

Re: Scale the Up

Nothing going to make 400 bu this year ?

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andysla
Senior Reader

Re: Scale the Up

you will find very very little 250 bu corn in minnesota let alone 300. we will have basicly the same corn crop as last year. now a month ago i would have said we would have been a good 15 bu. better than last year but it is not working out that way. i think the crop just finished a little too quick. having said that i do believe the beans will be 4 to 5 bu. better.

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Palouser
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

I get a real kick out you guys who think 2008 was caused by speculative excess.


Fundamentals in grain were the be all and end all. The idea that prices were not 'real' implies a formula for physical stocks and price. If there is it is related to a logrithmic scale. Or the square or the cube. Parabolic - whatever.


I will say that if we had a realistic futures market 2008 didn't have to happen the way it did. But it did, and that's all that matters.

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ray h.
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

    Why is it that we are prodded  to jump at pricing that is quite obsolete,the field man,the equipment dealer,the out of touch neighbor   all suggest a sale new crop or old at a price that just is not in touch with the times..I am not sure corn and soy beans,but with wheat we are not out of the third world level,not just yet.Im not saying that cme should be at $20.00 but  a couple of dallars more would only be equivelent to the $4.00 of the ninties.This market realy dose not have any thing bearish left,except political desire to control food pricing! Is it possible that what we realy need to be looking at is just exacttly where  they will pull the plug on their very own mandates?

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