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vrbuck
Frequent Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

your a dumb bunny because you could have rented out your land then asked for rent based on the highest cash corn price of the year.   Now the neighbor beside you that didn't sell will net more profit then you Kraft.

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ag678
Veteran Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

The start of 2008 wasn't caused by speculative excess, every bubble that has been started in history started with a legitimate fundamental story.  In 2008 it probably started with a short wheat crop due to bad weather in several parts of the world, and a growing ethanol demand in the US.  Although this was definetly a reason to rally and take price higher, you can't tell me fundamentals caused $10 moves in wheat almost overnight.  Also in the end what really broke the corn market $5.  Was it a big crop to elievate supplys?  Was it slowing demand?  Was it anything to do with fundementals?  In my opinion it had nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with the fall of Leahman Brothers.  Now if one could make the case that Leahman brothers has anything to do with supply and demand of corn I would like to hear the theory.  I can tell you that when Leahman went down it sparked massive amounts of margin calls to firms that held 7 billion bu of grain whith massive amounts of leverage.  So although a fundamental story started 2008 leverage and spec excess brought it beyond funamentals and killed it. 

 

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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

I thought you made a dumb move when I read it on here. Especially when your neighbor, Sue Martin ag investments, has been calling for wooden nickels in the corn price for over a month. But, I got to thinking, in your tax bracket and your love to pay em,, if you leave $1.00 on the corn table, it really is only $0.50, as the government takes the other $0.50 hit with you.

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booked
Veteran Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

all right I have got to ask what is the meaning of wooden nickels, I did google it and the meanings just don't fit????????

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Lol!   I'm less apt to agree with sue martin than you.

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centralillinois
Veteran Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

After the election this might look like a pretty good sale.  High corn prices will be a thing of the past if the ethanol subsidies are taken away.  The livestock industry will be back to losing money with these corn prices and they'll be lobbying our new elected officials about ethanol. My corn looked good enough that I sold some when it got close to 4 bucks.  I'm not sure if these crop tours really did us any good.  It's still better off than being in Russia. 

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Do the math. 200 bushel times $4 is $800 gross. I think there may be enough gross to pay crop input expenses plus the custom farming and leave a little to buy groceries.

 

My neighbor making more than me has never been my concern. In fact I hope he is doing well. Are you prepared for your rent increase?

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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

Wooden Nickels----$5.55/bu....That is when I will start selling corn.

She says next week we will $0.25 or better early in the week with all the buying momentum going on. Also, beans will hit $10.99/bu.  I got ambitious the other day and called up her phone number on her web and got a temporary subscription to her service. Let me tell you, she is a BULLISH advisor. Go long or be wrong

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giolucas
Frequent Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

4wd,

 

So what is wrong with being bullish when the market has turned bullish.  When Sue Martin, or for that matter any advisor speaks I listen but I trade what I think will happen.  What do you think where the market is going and why?  Maybe you can give us your thoughts.

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vrbuck
Frequent Contributor

Re: Two weeks and 50 cents ago

but you could have raised it some more after you figured out the numbers, and if that didn't tickle your fancy you could raise is more afte that.

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