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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Typical accumulated precipitation for the greater part of central Brazil

looks like this grid below.  It can't be good for their second season corn crop, late-planted or not.

grid_55W20S_30d 4-17-21.gif
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5 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Typical accumulated precipitation for the greater part of central Brazil

Thanks ...... by the end of May, if this continues, world supply will not have much carry.

I have felt for a few years, that any time there is a rising trend in commodity prices it means the world is without carry in that commodity.   If we maintain this, which started in August 2020, for more than one hemisphere crop cycle (this being the second or Southern Hemisphere one), the world has a problem that will take more than one cycle to fix.

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Typical accumulated precipitation for the greater part of central Brazil

1500# +,   fat - chubby's  supply  WILL  dwindle  -  -  -

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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Previously, I thought $6 new crop was unlikely but ....

...  I'm beginning to think it's well within reach.  I assumed that the spread would collapse to the new crop price but now I'm thinking the new crop price can come up to meet the old crop price and then some.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Previously, I thought $6 new crop was unlikely but ....

In an uptrend market it always does(come up to meet old crop somewhere).  Usually on a month to month gradual change.

Since we created the monopoly demand status by regulating commerce down to large multinational buyers and sellers we have not seen uptrend spreads very often.  But multinational producers can't expand supply like millions of small producers have done in the past.  But now that we have limited the development of new small producers to niche market specialties like hemp, and roadside stands, our millions of potential farmers are standing in line in urban locations, too good to be farmers.  China is producing unbelievable videos of laborless agriculture of the future that even they cannot put into action..... The worlds factory workers will not be allowed to go back to agriculture until there is economic collapse.  Technology has some issues that include who owns what.  We may be headed for a one world economy buy China will own the factory.

Next thing we face is the struggles of technology to supply production commerce from the mega factory in china.  Already upon us.  Ford truck production stopped waiting for computer components is one example.... Steel in short supply.  Article in SF.    Running on just in time supply on a global basis will not be fun.  When even a planter takes electronic control circuits, we have a dependence we, just maybe, cannot afford.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Previously, I thought $6 new crop was unlikely but ....

Just  In  Time  shipments  from  Asia ,  has  stumbled ,  with  so  called,  cheap  volume  logistics  =  UN-timely  chaos  appearance  -  -  -    

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