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Veteran Advisor

U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

Folks, I pieced together this story about corn  and soybean "early" yields being reported. Also, there are some thoughts about grain marketing plans, as a result of stronger basis levels. In general, farmers report lower than last year. But, what if last year was a really good yield year? Being off 20, 30, 40 bushels could still mean a decent crop, right? Anyway, take a look-see here.

 

Full story: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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8 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

In Cased You Missed It (ICYMI)

 

Informa, the private analyst firm, released its updated U.S. yield and output estimates Friday.

 

Corn= 178.7 bushels per acre, amounting to a 15.6 billion bushel crop for 2019.

Soybeans= 51.4 bu./acre, amounting to a 3.28 bill. bu. crop.

Wheat= 49.0 bu./acre, equaling a 1.9 bill. bu. crop for 2019.

 

What say you? Too big or too small of a corn yield average?

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

Thanks.

About what I'd expected- enough variability in early reports that anybody can, and will, take what they want to hear from it. My take is that it requires very good yields out of the good areas in order to hit USDA's #'s and I don't think that's exactly what I'm hearing.

The market will say "prove it."

Frost or not, I do expect some chattering when combines hit some of the later planted stuff in the ECB. Particularly some of these bitty beans that are already turning after several weeks of well less than hoped for precip.

I'd guess the usual 10 bpa swing on late dryness probably still applies but in this case my guess is that's from the possible 45 to 35, not the normal 60 to 50.

BTW, 7 bpa less national corn yield and 3 million fewer acres harvested for grain still gets me only to the cusp of the point where I think the corn market gets real interesting. And that assumes no further negative demand news.

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Senior Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

I think the Informa numbers are insane.

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Honored Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

There could be surprises to the upside if freeze holds off 3 more weeks.   Crops planted late for only insurance purposes might actually turn out good (damn it)  But 51 national  bean yield?  I know I won`t get that and planted halfway on time and had fairly above average weed control.   I`m thinking corn will be in mid 200`s.

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Senior Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

If 2018 corn average was 176.4, then I would consider that to be about the max for 2019 corn average.  Realistically, 10% less than 2018 should not be a surprise for 2019, which would be 158.8.  Therefore, I'd put the range at 158.8 to 176.4, current expectation around 168.  Very scientific.  A lesser national average yield would surprise me less that a greater national average yield at this point in time, just due to the numerous late planting dates and excessive moisture (for many) during the growing season.  That said, I have had corn replanted in June that out-yielded corn planted in April, maybe twice.

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Senior Contributor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

Thought that was 2020 predictions

anyways it’s their story let them tell it how they want it 

Im predicting more PP here in my area for 2020 that’s my story 

corn yields 50 of 18

beans 15 off 

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Honored Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

Those numbers can’t possibly be for 2019. More likely just a prediction for 2020.  And......just a preview of what they think USDA’s predicted numbers will be next March.

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Honored Advisor

Re: U.S. Corn Yields Are Rolling In

Informa is not an agricultural business on either the buying or selling side and not invested in agriculture.  Not University based nor is its methods overseen by any regulatory body

It is primarily a media organization that produces  material privately  for profit.  They primarily produce trade shows of all kinds including comic book conventions , 500 trade shows and 10,000 conferences annually,  it publishes for many different divisions and does some business management consulting.....

I did not see anywhere it claimed to do scientific research or just plain research.

In regard to that they did not claim to have any employees assaulted by midwest farmers during a crop tour in 2019......

They can't know much about the crop world wide other than reading old usda releases

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