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Senior Advisor

US must import lots of beans soon

The USDA is too low bean exports. Jerry Gidel's comment below.

 

This week’s export shipments were impressive with today’s soybean 18.7 million bu. pushing overall exports to 1.495 Billion.  This now leaves only 35 million bu. of soybeans to exports over the next 5 months suggesting that USDA’s export forecast of 1.53 is as much as 50 million too low and suggests that added imports of the same amount will likely be needed.  The market’s attention today is on the attention of one boat of soybean imports now arriving in NOLA -  not the extreme tightness of old-crop US soybeans supplies until Late September US arrive next harvest.  JG

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Honored Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

beans export inspections 4-7-2014.jpg

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Honored Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

Anybody got a "beancam"???

 

"Soybeans are lower on word that a couple of cargos of Brazilian beans have landed in New Orleans. This may be the beginning pages of loosening up the balance sheet a little bit."

 

OK we are still shipping out of N. O. Are they really unloading them and sending them up the river just to wave at our beans going down that same river?

 

Or maybe just, just maybe just letting the ship set loaded for a few days and then sending it on to it's first destination? Or senario 2 ... unloading it from the first ship onto another ship and sending it on it's way?

 

I still haven't gotten an answer on SA bean quality as far as oil and protein content. .. It used to be about 5% lower, has that been remedied?

 

the USDA April supply and demand report scheduled to come out Wednesday morning at 11 o'clock.

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Senior Contributor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

NO need to import beans, $15 will buy everything I got left!!!!!!!!

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

  • Cash at Bunge West was over $14.70 for a while ... do you have the trucks already on standby?
  • Cash Bids
Soybeans
Quote Basis
Apr '14
14.5925

-0.0500

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

Still enough beans here to keep a negitive basis.

 

There has been several mentions about Canadian beans being imported. How many extra do they have?

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Senior Contributor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

In 11/12 we imported 16 mb , 12/13 30 mb, 13/14 we are expected to import 35 mb per last report and generally speaking they are from those good ole boys up north.
On a side note the ship that was suppose to be hauling in to NOLA is an over or post Panamax vessel so they would have to put them on a different ship to get them through the canal if they were headed west to get to the Far East.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

The trend is still bullish for beans and as we try to hurdle that $15 mark I still like our chances that we will get there.  Demand has been the driver.  

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Senior Advisor

It's a no brainer ......

..... that China sets a new record for bean imports every year. But, they are up 10 MMT!!! That's somewhere between 8-9% using recalled figures. That's huge! We get nearly wiped out and S America won't have a huge surplus either.

 

If corn is off a bit this year (S America will be down) then there will be a huge amount of pressure. FC Stone is assuming wheat will hold its own. But if an El Nino does to Australia what if often does then that will be a hit! Then it gets decided by the SW, Russia and Ukraine situation, and whatever.

 

Going to be as good of marketing year as any so far! If you don't like marketing then hopefully those can go to the Carribean, throw their cells in the surf and drink rum.

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Advisor

Re: US must import lots of beans soon

Would it be simpler/cheaper to just get the isolated beans in north dakota area with a truck?? Or pay freight comparable to oil??  it's gonna take 16 to get the rest of mine. I'm 35 miles from eagle grove, 45 miles from emmetsburg, and 60 from fairmont mn(nearby processor location). I suspect there are pleanty beans in this area that will shake loose, with $16 bids. I think i've fallen in love with the stupid things.

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