Yes, for the third year in a row the United States will be the top wheat supplier for Brazil. I will bring numbers from Brazilian consultancy Trigo & Farinhas that will make that clear for you as farmers prepare for wheat planting in South American. Argentina, the top US competitor in the market, is expected to have a surface reduction of 10%. Uruguay, a supplier of forage wheat, will also have a surface drop of nearly 17%. Paraguay has a fall estimated at 10% too. In Brazil itself, the surface would drop from 10% to 20%. So there will be surely over one million tons that are likely to be coming from the US.
What do you guys think of this opportunity? 2016 can repeat 2015 in this sense. But the key issue will be the election in Argentina. If opposition candidate, Mauricio Macri, gets elected, Argentina's farmers tend to sell wheat stocks to Brazil and producers tend to feel motivated (and financially supported) for a new crop. Macri promised a new policy, allowing corn and wheat exports freely, and a market-based money exchange. If the incumbent Justicialist Party wins, Kirchner's policies with taxes on grains, controlled exports and controlled money exchange rate tend to continue - and therefore farmers would not plant and export more wheat.
