US wheat pinning hopes on the north
Specifically Montana and N Dakota (which planted late because of moisture). Canada battled wet and cold and didn't get everything planted by June 20th insurance date and production is forcast down more than 20% from last year's high water mark. Meanwhile the southern Plains have been dealing with excess rain on wheat ready to harvest so I imagine the high TW are now not so high anymore.
The word is that Russia's grain received 'timely rains' that saved it from seriously deteriorating. Europe has a good crop.
My assumption is that India can't export wheat at these low prices because of the phenomenal subsidy it would take to reach global prices. This year's crop was embargoed because of storm damage, though this seemed like a political issue before the election, which the incumbants lost. Meanwhile the monsoon season hasn't had a good start so far - so who really knows?
Black Sea wheat is moving into Australia's foreign markets as they are wary of El Nino and have been burnt before at delivery time so they aren't selling yet.