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Veteran Advisor

USDA And John Deere Agree End In Sight

Some of you will believe one or the other of the sources; some of you will believe neither.  Both say 2017-2018 should see the bottom of the grain market and profits should look up into the next 8 years or so.

 

Both see more growth in South American production than in the US.  The US share of world grain production is projected to slip, by their lights.

 

We all are seeing signs that reinforce the common larger view - it's a world market and we have to adjust and adapt to working within it.  It's one more challenge that grandpa didn't have.

5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: USDA And John Deere Agree End In Sight

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA And John Deere Agree End In Sight

Yes Jim,

 

We are subject to the same economic laws as every other industry in the US.

If it can be produced cheaper somewhere else it will be.

Our production costs are uncontrollably high and our consumers vote for those high costs and buy cheaper products.

 

Even if commodity prices rise the number of financially independent farms will continue go down and to give way to the least cost producer.

Across the board the last several years the "successful" industries in the US are subsidized by Federal spending or lack of federal taxation.  Neither will last.

The idea that any foreign produced commodity is produced to the same standards as ours is a hoax.  

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA And John Deere Agree End In Sight

I know I'm a bit slow right now but could
You share where either is making that
Statement?
Thank you
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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA And John Deere Agree End In Sight

what worries me is getting thru this year !!!

 

was at an outlook meeting this past week.......don't know what it is this week, and next, meetings all over, the boss said she

was glad she didn't have to cook for a few days......

 

anyhow....i'm still trying to figure this one out......they don't see a decline in demand for beans world wide.....and they are telling

me this past year was a fluke......very very good yields.....claims that's what happened to the wheat market...easter of last

year nobody would have thought wheat would have yielded what it did.  on the corn, kind of a mixed deal....the alchol part

is what is helping, and is kind of reaching perhaps its limit....the only thing is if other countries think to add an oxygen

unit in their fuel, that might spur more etho....but about maxing out right now.....but we are using it in a lot of feeds.

wheat.....the thought is yes, a lot of wheat...they said that the demand for flour dropped this last year, first time in history.

unsure if the gluten people are having an effect....but they feel the acres are going to be down, even more than talked

of, and feels the harvested acres are going to be down, due to maybe bad wheat out west, and graze out, or rip out and

plant something else.......

overall the idea was, buy beans on dips, sell corn on rallys, and wheat.....be patient.

 

when to an appreciation supper tonight, had prime rib.....someone behind me kept saying "remember the doctor told you to cut back"....

when we were in the serving line.......got a little smell of everything...it was good........but boy a little bit more would have

tasted good......but I guess my bellybutton is rubbing my backbone tonight.

 

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