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Veteran Advisor

USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion - start in field?

      Looking ahead to next Wed. report we should expect to see about 400 - 500 mil. bushels added back into the supply side of balance sheet ---best I can tell. Where will it show up? Will they take it all out of feed and ETOH or also reduce exports even more?

 

      Won't they have to back some out of imports, as well, with US's surplus supply?.... and the biggy will be the Ending stocks number. I'm just a Big Dummy compared to everyone dealing in the physical market.....will Ending inventory have to increase to 1 billion bushels, now?

 

I think Informa or (mis) depending on how you feel, comes out tomorrow with their est.

 

Help this citified Texan out. WHAT DO Y'ALL THINK????

 

thx, c-x-1

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14 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

feed will be a logical choice.

 

Took a little tour of 6 lots in sw ks today and as they say "cattle numbers keep giving in to the drought"  there are fewer cows producing fewer cattle to feed and not a lot of excess feed to buy( corn or wheat or roughage).  

 

a couple of more years of drought in the west and the social engineers will have their way------------ the american diet will change for the lower income consumer.

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Senior Contributor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

I am in the camp that says that the WASDE people will not take all of the stocks report at face value..... They did not last yr when it was the other way...... I look for a 200 mil decrease in usage total...... 800 mil ending stocks or so....... p-oed

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

good point p-oed.....different people

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Senior Contributor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

I am looking for a hair over a billion
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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

thank y'all.

 

one other question: what would you say is average for you or any farmer --timewise--from when you/they hit the fieldwork to get the (pink-that photo from La) corn seed in the ground for the whole farm or operation?

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

c-x-1...you would better served to just goggle NASS planting progess reports. The data for the nation is very accurate on this one and the database includes just about every possible weather scenario. This is the only thing the market will be watching anyway. Oh, and remember too early is just about as bad as too late.

 

To your question, it depends on your location. Universities have documented the average number of suitable field work days for every state. In Indiana you need to be able to plant the crop in 10 to 13 good days. Ohio has about 7 to 8. NE probably has 30 since it never rains out there. :-)

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

Time,   You are wrong oh wise one.............Ohio only has two optimum days to plant......yesterday and tomorrow.     Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion

when is it going to be warm enough to get in the gound for y'all?

 

thanks,

c-x-1

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Senior Contributor

Re: USDA Apr. 10 --Your Opinion - start in field?

Cx, in ECIL we are starting NH3 in the next couple days. Planting is another story. Still chilly and weather models are all over the place in the 15 day. We need some warm weather. Guessing a couple weeks at least for planting corn. Have a good one. Nice to be busy with spring stuff and not have to watch these markets! Getting all our seed delivered today. Another good feeling.
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