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Senior Contributor

USDA....Like em or not.....

The trade will use USDA's # until there is more information available..... It will make trying to fig out total production a tough job to say the least...... Makes no difference as to what we see out our back yard the trade is and will trade a bigger crop total unless the weather turns a LOT hotter and dryer than is currently forecast..... Alas.. I am bearish new crop corn and beans..... I am looking for prices that will slow or maybe even kill (Must I say it "Supply destruction" ) SA corn production next yr...... I feel that we are going to levels to make some or all of that happen...... With that said...... I am not as bearish longer term.... We will buy back demand from others that have only been in the game because of 7 to 8 dollar corn etc..... I look for exports to be back loaded next yr as SA supplies will not be there for them to buy next summer..... We still can have a 14 bil crop and use enough  to get carry outs down to 1.2 to 1.4 bil..... Not as overwhelming as 2.0 bil +...... Be prepared to fill the bins and market like the olds days..... FWIW......p-oed

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

I hope you don't see LDPs in your crystal ball..............

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Senior Advisor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

I was just thinking of asking if these farmers are going to reshuffle the deck and rethink their marketing expectations. The USDA is not making a great turn around in  their expectations and we best not count on a dramatic flip flop in their numbers.

 

It will be interesting to see whether the market responds to a cintinued sell off or recovers to some extent. I'm still holding old crop waiting for that tide of enthusiasm due when they decide the yields aren't going to be there. Alas, that probably is a fools game and I will pay for it.

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

The USDA's bushel counting machine in the back room

http://www.wimp.com/massivelego/

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

This is just my take on the shysters at USDA, they are puffing up expectations of a big crop, the buyers are acting like OJ trying on a shrunken glove in court that "won`t fit" (I don`t blame them, ya gotta do what ya gotta do).  The true story will come out in January, but then they will be touting a "100 million corn acre 175 bu crop" coming in 2014, which will tamper down price expectations.  Then on the otherside of the street, the Jackson Hole boys are barking for equities, keeping the hedge fund money out of commods. In short through this David Copperfield act, a corn market is traded with a mythical "2 billion bushel carry" when actually it`s south of 1 billion.  As always, just my 2¢ Smiley Happy 

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Senior Contributor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

Dear P-oed:

 

I have heard this argument every year for the last 30 years.  It is the classic permabull position.  Remember the old Peter Paul and Mary song, which had a line in it,  "when will they ever learn?"---might have even been the title of the song.

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Senior Contributor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

vandenplas...... please explain your self..... How is this the "Classic permabull position"?...... Are you saying that one should not be sold?.....Please explain as to your thoughs on these markets.......Thanks.... p-oed

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Veteran Advisor

Re: USDA....Like em or not.....

Hobby - the "machine" is just like the USDA's machine - they miss things once in a whileSmiley Surprised

 

Jen

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